Political Business Cycles in the New Keynesian Model
AbstractThis paper tests various Political Business Cycle theories in a New Keynesian model with a monetary and fiscal policy mix. All the policy coefficients, the target levels of inflation and the budget deficit, the firms' frequency of price setting, and the standard deviations of the structural shocks are allowed to depend on 'political' regimes: a pre-election vs. post-election regime, a regime that depends on whether the President (or the Fed Chairman) is a Democrat or a Republican, and a regime under which the President and the Fed Chairman share party affiliation in pre-election quarters or not. The model is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed: economic agents can learn about the effect of political variables over time. The results provide evidence that several coefficients depend on political variables. The best-fitting specification is one that allows coefficients to depend on a pre-election vs. non-election regime. Monetary policy becomes considerably more inertial before elections and fiscal policy deviations from a simple rule are more common. The results overall support the view of an independent Fed that avoids taking policy decisions right before elections. There is some evidence, however, that policies become more expansionary before elections, but this evidence seems to disappear in the post-1985 sample. The estimates also indicate that firms similarly delay their price-setting decisions until after the upcoming Presidential election.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 070805.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Political business cycles; Opportunistic cycles; Partisan cycles; Monetary and fiscal policy; Adaptive learning; Bayesian estimation;
Other versions of this item:
- Fabio Milani, 2010. "Political Business Cycles In The New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 896-915, October.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-11-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-11-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-11-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-POL-2007-11-17 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Cohen, Gerald D & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992.
"Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1991. "Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies," NBER Working Papers 3830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007.
"Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
- Adam, Klaus, 2003.
"Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2003/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Learning To Forecast And Cyclical Behavior Of Output And Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 1-27, February.
- Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 297, Society for Computational Economics.
- Abrams, Burton A & Butkiewicz, James L, 1995. " The Influence of State-Level Economic Conditions on the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-10, October.
- Burton A. Abrams, 2006.
"How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 177-188, Fall.
- Burton A. Abrams, 2006. "How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes," Working Papers 06-04, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:9:y:2005:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
- Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
- Cohen, Gerald & Alesina, Alberto & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies," Scholarly Articles 4553023, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Macroeconomic Policy And Elections In Oecd Democracies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, 03.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gloria Simpson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.