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The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives

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  • Hibbs, Douglas A.

Abstract

The number of House seats won by the president's party at midterm elections is well explained by three pre-determined or exogenous variables: (1) the number of House seats won by the in-party at the previous on-year election, (2) the vote margin of the in-party's candidate at the previous presidential election, and (3) the average growth rate of per capita real disposable personal income during the congressional term. Given the partisan division of House seats following the 2008 on-year election, President Obama's margin of victory in 2008, and the weak growth of per capita real income during the first 6 quarters of the 111th Congress, the Democrat's chances of holding on to a House majority by winning at least 218 seats at the 2010 midterm election will depend on real income growth in the 3rd quarter of 2010. The data available at this writing indicate the that Democrats will win 211 seats, a loss of 45 from the 2008 on-year result that will put them in the minority for the 112th Congress.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25918.

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Date of creation: 22 Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25918

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Keywords: US House of Representatives; 2010 election; economics and elections;

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  1. Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 2002. " Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(1-2), pages 143-62, January.
  2. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
  3. Rosenthal, Howard & Alesina, Alberto, 1989. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy," Scholarly Articles 4553031, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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