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Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

Three vote‐share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on‐term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways; (2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on‐term House elections; (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote, which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected representatives; and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative effect on the next midterm House vote share, which is likely explained by a balance argument.

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  • Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:55-72
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00357.x
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    1. Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 2002. "Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(1-2), pages 143-162, January.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Gago Andrés & Carozzi Felipe & Bermejo Vicente J. & Abad Jose M., 2023. "Government Turnover and External Financial Assistance," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4655, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2279, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Di Benedetto, Andrea & Wieners, Claudia E. & Dijkstra, Henk A. & Stoof, Henk T.C., 2023. "Media preference increases polarization in an agent-based election model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 626(C).
    6. Ted Hayduk, 2022. "Association membership, election cycles, and political donation patterns," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 359-384, December.
    7. Graefe, Andreas, 2023. "Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 170-177.
    8. Montalvo, José G. & Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros & Stumpf-Fétizon, Timothée, 2019. "Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-70.
    9. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections [Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480853, HAL.
    10. Philippe Jacquart & John Antonakis, 2015. "When does charisma matter for top-level leaders? Effect of attributional ambiguity," Post-Print hal-02276710, HAL.
    11. Tomi Ovaska & Ryo Takashima, 2019. "Export Jobs, Special Interest Groups, and the US Presidential Election of 2016: The Case of West Virginia," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 34(Winter 20), pages 75-97.
    12. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.

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