IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp15849.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Elections Affect Immigration? Evidence From French Municipalities

Author

Listed:
  • Schmutz, Benoît

    (CREST)

  • Verdugo, Gregory

    (University of Evry)

Abstract

Using thirty years of municipal elections in France, we show that election results affect the share of immigrants across municipalities. In municipalities where a left- instead of right-wing mayor has been elected, the share of immigrants in the population grows faster by 1.5 p.p. within six years after the elections, and by 3 p.p. within twelve years. To a large extent, these effects are driven by partisan differences in public housing constructions and changes in the composition of the population within existing public housing units. They also are associated with greater incumbency advantage, in line with a model of strategic partisan behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmutz, Benoît & Verdugo, Gregory, 2023. "Do Elections Affect Immigration? Evidence From French Municipalities," IZA Discussion Papers 15849, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15849
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp15849.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabrielle Fack & Julien Grenet, 2015. "Improving College Access and Success for Low-Income Students: Evidence from a Large Need-Based Grant Program," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-34, April.
    2. Dan Bernhardt & Peter Buisseret & Sinem Hidir, 2020. "The Race to the Base," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 922-942, March.
    3. Bracco, Emanuele & De Paola, Maria & Green, Colin P. & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2018. "The effect of far right parties on the location choice of immigrants: Evidence from Lega Nord Mayors," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 12-26.
    4. Clémence Tricaud, 2021. "Better Alone? Evidence on the Costs of Intermunicipal Cooperation," Working Papers hal-03380333, HAL.
    5. Sylvie Charlot & Sonia Paty & Virginie Piguet, 2008. "Intercommunalité et fiscalité directe locale," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 415(1), pages 121-140.
    6. Javier Ortega & Gregory Verdugo, 2022. "Who stays and who leaves? Immigration and the selection of natives across locations," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 221-260.
    7. Gregory Verdugo & Sorana Toma, 2018. "Can Public Housing Decrease Segregation? Lessons and Challenges From Non-European Immigration in France," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1803-1828, October.
    8. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2013. "Do political parties matter for local land use policies?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-56.
    9. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Curley Effect: The Economics of Shaping the Electorate," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, April.
    10. Gregory Verdugo, 2016. "Public housing magnets: public housing supply and immigrants’ location choices," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 237-265.
    11. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    12. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser & Jacob L. Vigdor, 2008. "Is the Melting Pot Still Hot? Explaining the Resurgence of Immigrant Segregation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 478-497, August.
    13. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    14. Edward L. Glaeser & Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2005. "Strategic Extremism: Why Republicans and Democrats Divide on Religious Values," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1283-1330.
    15. Epple, Dennis & Zelenitz, Allan, 1981. "The Implications of Competition among Jurisdictions: Does Tiebout Need Politics?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1197-1217, December.
    16. Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2022. "Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 1-48.
    17. Jean-Claude Driant, 2011. "Les mutations en sourdine du financement du logement social," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 187-197.
    18. Barone, Guglielmo & D'Ignazio, Alessio & de Blasio, Guido & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2016. "Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and politics. The role of immigration in shaping natives' voting behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    19. Cukierman, Alex & Tommasi, Mariano, 1998. "When Does It Take a Nixon to Go to China?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 180-197, March.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31cfdhnp1f8asp29hjnqv33slt is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, And Compositional Amenities," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 78-119, February.
    22. Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "Estimating Housing Demand With an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 20-33, January.
    23. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Decreuse, Bruno & Schmutz, Benoît & Trannoy, Alain, 2018. "Neighbor discrimination theory and evidence from the French rental market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 104-123.
    24. Jean-Claude Driant, 2011. "Les mutations en sourdine du financement du logement social," Regards croisés sur l'économie, La Découverte, vol. 0(1), pages 187-197.
    25. Acolin, Arthur & Bostic, Raphael & Painter, Gary, 2016. "A field study of rental market discrimination across origins in France," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-63.
    26. Lincoln Quillian & Hugues Lagrange, 2016. "Socioeconomic Segregation in Large Cities in France and the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1051-1084, August.
    27. Battiston, Diego & Dickens, Richard & Manning, Alan & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 2014. "Immigration and the access to social housing in the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60274, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2017. "Immigration and Voting for the Far Right," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1341-1385.
    29. H. Spencer Banzhaf & Randall P. Walsh, 2008. "Do People Vote with Their Feet? An Empirical Test of Tiebout," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 843-863, June.
    30. Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2014. "Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 67-79.
    31. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    32. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    33. Alan Manning & Diego Battiston & Richard Dickens & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2014. "Immigrant's access to social housing: perception and reality," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 420, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    34. Denis Fougère & Mirna Safi, 2009. "Naturalization and employment of immigrants in France (1968‐1999)," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1/2), pages 83-96, March.
    35. Jeff Henderson & Valerie Karn, 1984. "Race, Class and the Allocation of Public Housing in Britain," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 21(2), pages 115-128, May.
    36. Benoît Schmutz & Modibo Sidibé, 2019. "Frictional Labour Mobility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1779-1826.
    37. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    38. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Tipping and the Dynamics of Segregation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 177-218.
    39. Borjas, George J, 1999. "Immigration and Welfare Magnets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 607-637, October.
    40. Xu, Hangtian & Zhou, Yiming, 2019. "Public housing provision and housing vacancies in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    41. repec:hal:journl:hal-03380333 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    43. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 399-422.
    44. Michaela Slotwinski & Alois Stutzer, 2019. "The deterrent effect of an anti-minaret vote on foreigners’ location choices," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 1043-1095, July.
    45. repec:cai:poeine:pope_803_0415 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Bartel, Ann P, 1989. "Where Do the New U.S. Immigrants Live?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 371-391, October.
    47. Albert Saiz & Susan Wachter, 2011. "Immigration and the Neighborhood," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 169-188, May.
    48. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    49. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Ouazad, Amine, 2015. "Blockbusting: Brokers and the dynamics of segregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 811-841.
    51. Stephen M. Calabrese & Dennis N. Epple & Richard E. Romano, 2012. "Inefficiencies from Metropolitan Political and Fiscal Decentralization: Failures of Tiebout Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1081-1111.
    52. Denis Fougère & Mirna Safi, 2009. "Naturalization and employment of immigrants in France (1968‐1999)," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1/2), pages 83-96, March.
    53. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1ck6j135a79b5pqdagv8visfep is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Andrew C. Eggers & Anthony Fowler & Jens Hainmueller & Andrew B. Hall & James M. Snyder, 2015. "On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(1), pages 259-274, January.
    55. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2015. "Optimal Data-Driven Regression Discontinuity Plots," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1753-1769, December.
    56. Christian Dippel, 2019. "Political Parties Do Matter in U.S. Cities ... For Their Unfunded Pensions," NBER Working Papers 25601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. John Ferejohn, 1986. "Incumbent performance and electoral control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 5-25, January.
    58. Ildefonso Mendez & Isabel Cutillas, 2014. "Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 135-171, January.
    59. Erik Meyersson, 2014. "Islamic Rule and the Empowerment of the Poor and Pious," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 229-269, January.
    60. Jacob R. Brown & Ryan D. Enos, 2021. "The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 998-1008, August.
    61. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    62. Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2008. "Do Parties Matter for Economic Outcomes? A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1037-1056, September.
    63. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Roc ́ıo Titiunik, 2017. "rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(2), pages 372-404, June.
    64. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    65. Liliane Bonnal & Rachid Boumahdi & Pascal Favard, 2012. "Nonexpected discrimination: the case of social housing in France," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1909-1916, December.
    66. Elisabeth R Gerber & Daniel J Hopkins, 2011. "When Mayors Matter: Estimating the Impact of Mayoral Partisanship on City Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 326-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Bellodi & Frederic Docquier & Stefano Iandolo & Massimo Morelli & Riccardo Turati, 2024. "Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24216, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Bellodi, Luca & Docquier, Frédéric & Iandolo, Stefano & Morelli, Massimo & Turati, Riccardo, 2024. "Digging up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities," IZA Discussion Papers 16732, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Guillaume Chapelle & J.B. Eyméoud & C. Wolf, 2023. "Land-use regulation and housing supply elasticity: evidence from France," THEMA Working Papers 2023-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benoît SCHMUTZ & Grégory VERDUGO, 2020. "Do Politicians Shape the Electorate ? Evidence from French Municipalities," Working Papers 2020-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 01 Apr 2021.
    2. Egidio Farina, 2018. "The impact of political and religious leaders on socio-economic outcomes," Economics PhD Theses 0218, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Luisa Doerr & Niklas Potrafke & Felix Roesel, 2021. "Populists in Power," CESifo Working Paper Series 9336, CESifo.
    4. Augusto Cerqua & Federico Zampollo, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," Working Papers 6/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    5. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    6. Makarin, Alexey & Piqué, Ricardo & Aragón, Fernando, 2020. "National or sub-national parties: Does party geographic scope matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Bedasso Biniam E. & Jaupart Pascal, 2020. "South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    8. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2023. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    10. Makkar, Karan, 2023. "Defector Politicians and Economic Growth: Evidence from India," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Gouvêa, Raphael & Girardi, Daniele, 2021. "Partisanship and local fiscal policy: Evidence from Brazilian cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Eugenio Levi & Rama Dasi Mariani & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: the case of Ukip," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32, January.
    13. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2013. "Do political parties matter for local land use policies?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-56.
    14. Burgherr, David, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to a Pension Savings Mandate : Quasi-experimental Evidence from Swiss Tax Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 645, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Quaresima Federico & Santolini Raffaella & Fiorillo Fabio, 2020. "Political affiliation in post-parliamentary careers in Italian public enterprises," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 35-64, April.
    16. Stelios Roupakias & Michael Chletsos, 2020. "Immigration and far-right voting: evidence from Greece," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(3), pages 591-617, December.
    17. Federico Quaresima & Fabio Fiorillo & Raffaella Santolini, 2018. "Does Political Affiliation Matter On Post-Parliamentary Careers In The Boards Of Public Enterprises?," Working Papers 429, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    18. Jakub Lonsky, 2021. "Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 97-139, January.
    19. Tabellini, Marco, 2020. "Racial Heterogeneity and Local Government Finances: Evidence from the Great Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 14319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Andrew McEachin & Thurston Domina & Andrew Penner, 2020. "Heterogeneous Effects of Early Algebra across California Middle Schools," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 772-800, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    local elections; public housing; immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.