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Immigration and election outcomes — Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

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  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on local election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that non-economic determinants and welfare state considerations are important in shaping individual attitudes towards immigration.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 67-79

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:67-79

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec

Related research

Keywords: Immigration; Political economy; Elections; City districts;

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References

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  1. Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2004. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0401, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. O'Rourke, Kevin H. & Sinnott, Richard, 2006. "The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 838-861, December.
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  4. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
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  8. Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), 2005. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  9. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
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  11. Ortega, Francesc & Polavieja, Javier G., 2012. "Labor-market exposure as a determinant of attitudes toward immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 298-311.
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  13. Gerdes, Christer & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2010. "The impact of immigration on election outcomes in Danish municipalities," SULCIS Working Papers 2010:3, Stockholm University Linnaeus Center for Integration Studies - SULCIS.
  14. Martin Steininger & Ralph Rotte, 2009. "Crime, unemployment, and xenophobia?," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 29-63, February.
  15. Nannestad, Peter, 2007. "Immigration and welfare states: A survey of 15 years of research," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 512-532, June.
  16. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2001. "Attitudes to Ethic Minorities, Ethnic Context and Location Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 353-73, April.
  17. Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2008. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," Development Working Papers 266, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  18. David Card, 2007. "How Immigration Affects U.S. Cities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0711, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  19. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ildefonso Mendez & Isabel Cutillas, 2014. "Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 135-171, January.
  2. Tomassi, Federico, 2014. "Changes in the Eternal City: Inequalities, commons, and elections in Rome districts from 2000 to 2013," MPRA Paper 56227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Hillmann, Katja & Hohenleitner, Ingrid, 2012. "Impact of benefit sanctions on unemployment outflow: Evidence from German survey data," HWWI Research Papers 129, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  4. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  5. Barone, Guglielmo & D'Ignazio, Alessio & de Blasio, Guido & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2014. "Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and Politics: The Role of Immigration in Shaping Natives' Political Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 8228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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