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Does Immigration Decrease Far-Fight Popularity? Evidence from Finnish Municipalities

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  • Jakub Lonsky

Abstract

Across Europe, far-right parties have made signi ficant electoral gains in recent years, posing aserious threat to the European integration process. Their anti-immigration stance is consideredone of the main factors behind their success. Yet, the causal evidence on how immigrationaffects far-right voting is still relatively scarce. Using data from Finland, this paper studiesthe effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting aconvenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that one percentage point increase in theshare of foreign citizens in municipality decreases Finns Party's vote share by 3.4 percentagepoints. A placebo test using pre-period data confi rms this effect is not driven by persistenttrends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the twopro-immigration parties. In addition, immigration is found to increase voter turnout while theprotest vote remains unaffected. Turning to potential mechanisms, the negative effect is onlypresent in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants. Moreover, I provide someevidence for welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.

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  • Jakub Lonsky, 2018. "Does Immigration Decrease Far-Fight Popularity? Evidence from Finnish Municipalities," Working Paper 6471, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    • Handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:6471
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    2. Hangartner, Dominik & Sarvimäki, Matti & Spirig, Judith, 2021. "Managing Refugee Protection Crises: Policy Lessons from Economics and Political Science," IZA Discussion Papers 14821, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jakub Grossmann & Stepan Jurajda, 2023. "Voting under Debtor Distress," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp744, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Schirner, Sebastian & Hessami, Zohal, 2023. "Migration Shocks, Elections, and Political Selection," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277670, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Zhang, Zhijian & Wang, Xueyuan, 2022. "Birthplace diversity and private giving: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Rania Gihleb & Osea Giuntalla & Luca Stella, 2022. "Exposure to Past Immigration Waves and Attitudes toward Newcomers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9941, CESifo.
    7. Carlo Devillanova, 2021. "Tolerant or segregated? Immigration and electoral outcomes in urban areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 495-515, April.
    8. Dreher, Axel & Langlotz, Sarah & Matzat, Johannes & Parsons, Christopher, 2020. "Immigration, Political Ideologies and the Polarization of American Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2021. "The Refugee Crisis and Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Silvia Peracchi, 2022. "The Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10070, CESifo.
    11. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski, 2020. "Hosting Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right: Evidence from France," PSE Working Papers halshs-02982827, HAL.
    12. Kayaoglu, Aysegul, 2022. "Do refugees cause crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Emanuele Bracco & Luisanna Onnis, 2022. "Immigration, amnesties, and the shadow economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1135-1162, October.
    14. Pieroni, Luca & Roig, Melcior Rosselló & Salmasi, Luca, 2023. "Italy: Immigration and the evolution of populism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Adrian Mehic, 2022. "Regional aspects of immigration‐related changes in political preferences," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1386-1413, November.
    16. Jäger, Julian, 2023. "Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 76, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    17. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski, 2020. "Hosting Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right: Evidence from France," Working Papers halshs-02982827, HAL.
    18. Francesco Campo & Sara Giunti & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "The Political Impact of Refugee Migration: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," Working Papers 456, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    19. Silvia Peracchi, 2023. "Migration Crisis in the Local News: Evidence from the French-Italian Border," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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