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Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg

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  • Otto, Alkis Henri
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of immigration on election outcomes. Our analysis makes use of data on city districts in Hamburg, Germany, during a period of substantial inflows of immigrants and asylum seekers. We find significant and robust effects for changes in foreigner shares on the electoral success of parties that built up a distinctive reputation in immigration politics. In particular, our fixed-effects estimates indicate a positive effect for xenophobic, extreme right-wing parties and an adverse effect for the Green party that actively campaigned for liberal immigration policies and minority rights. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that changes in local compositional amenities shape individual attitudes towards immigration. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg School of Business Administration (HSBA) in its series Working Paper Series with number 02/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hsbawp:022012

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Fax: (040) 36 13 8-751
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Keywords: immigration; elections; xenophobia;

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  1. Halla, Martin & Wagner, Alexander F & Zweimüller, Josef, 2012. "Does Immigration Into Their Neighborhoods Incline Voters Toward the Extreme Right? The Case of the Freedom Party of Austria," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2001. "Attitudes to Ethic Minorities, Ethnic Context and Location Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 353-73, April.
  3. Gerdes, Christer & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2008. "The Impact of Immigration on Election Outcomes in Danish Municipalities," IZA Discussion Papers 3586, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants across Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1768, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2000. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0839, Econometric Society.
  6. Mayda, Anna Maria, 2004. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 1115, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November.
  8. Peri, Giovanni & Sparber, Chad, 2011. "Assessing inherent model bias: An application to native displacement in response to immigration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 82-91, January.
  9. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Richard Sinnott, 2004. "The Determinants of Individual Attitudes Towards Immigration," Trinity Economics Papers, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics 20042, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  10. Ortega, Francesc, 2005. "Immigration quotas and skill upgrading," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1841-1863, September.
  11. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2009. "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities," NBER Working Papers 15521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sauro Mocetti & Carmine Porello, 2010. "How does immigration affect native internal mobility? New evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 748, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Ortega, Francesc & Polavieja, Javier G., 2009. "Labor-Market Exposure as a Determinant of Attitudes toward Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 4519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2008. "Does citizenship matter? The economic impact of naturalizations in Germany," Development Working Papers 266, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  15. Nannestad, Peter, 2007. "Immigration and welfare states: A survey of 15 years of research," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 512-532, June.
  16. Gordon H. Hanson & Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew Slaughter, 2005. "Public Finance and Individual Preferences over Globalization Strategies," NBER Working Papers 11028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. David Card, 2007. "How Immigration Affects U.S. Cities," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0711, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  18. Miguet, Florence, 2008. "Voting about immigration policy: What does the Swiss experience tell us?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 628-641, September.
  19. Martin Steininger & Ralph Rotte, 2009. "Crime, unemployment, and xenophobia?," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 29-63, February.
  20. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Barone, Guglielmo & D'Ignazio, Alessio & de Blasio, Guido & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2014. "Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and Politics: The Role of Immigration in Shaping Natives' Political Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 8228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Ildefonso Mendez & Isabel Cutillas, 2014. "Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 135-171, January.
  4. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  5. Tomassi, Federico, 2014. "Changes in the Eternal City: Inequalities, commons, and elections in Rome districts from 2000 to 2013," MPRA Paper 56227, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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