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Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?

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  • Ildefonso Mendez

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  • Isabel Cutillas
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    Abstract

    Between 1998 and 2008, the immigrant share in Spain jumped from less than 3 % to more than 13 %. We provide bounds on the effect of immigration inflows on natives’ election outcomes by considering alternative assumptions about nationalized immigrants’ participation rates and voting behavior. We find that Latin-American immigration increased natives’ participation rate and their support for the major leftist party (Socialist Workers’ Party) over the major conservative party (People’s Party (PP)). Conversely, African immigration only increased natives’ support for anti-immigration formations relative to the PP while leaving unaffected their participation rate. The estimated effects are of modest size in all cases. We provide suggestive evidence that economic factors cannot account for such a heterogeneity in the effects of interest by immigrants’ ethnic groups. We argue that Spanish natives’ attitudes towards immigrants are mainly driven by noneconomic factors like dissimilarities between natives and immigrants in language, religion, and race. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 135-171

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:27:y:2014:i:1:p:135-171

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    Related research

    Keywords: Immigration; Electoral outcomes; Instrumental variables; National identity;

    References

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    1. César Alonso-Borrego & Nuno Garoupa & Pablo Vázquez, 2012. "Does Immigration Cause Crime? Evidence from Spain," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 165-191.
    2. Dustmann Christian & Preston Ian P, 2007. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    3. Lídia Farré & Libertad González Luna & Francesc Ortega, 2009. "Immigration, family responsibilities and the labor supply of skilled native women," Economics Working Papers 1161, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Gerdes, Christer & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2008. "The Impact of Immigration on Election Outcomes in Danish Municipalities," IZA Discussion Papers 3586, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Ramón García & Ana Carolina Ortega, . "The Effect of Immigration on the Employment Opportunities of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence for Spain," Working Papers 2004-17, FEDEA.
    6. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    7. Otto, Alkis Henri & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Immigration and election outcomes: Evidence from city districts in Hamburg," Working Paper Series 02/2012, Hamburg School of Business Administration (HSBA).
    8. Namkee Ahn & Pablo Vázquez, 2007. "¿Por qué preocupa la inmigración?: Un análisis de los datos de la encuesta del CIS," Working Papers 2007-11, FEDEA.
    9. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Jimeno & A. Ortega, 2008. "The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 627-648, July.
    10. José G. Montalvo, 2011. "Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1146-1154, November.
    11. Martínez i Coma, Ferran & Duval Hernández, Robert, 2009. "Hostility Toward Immigration in Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 4109, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Asymptotic properties of a robust variance matrix estimator for panel data when T is large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 597-620, December.
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