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The Evolution of the Fed's Inflation Target in an Estimated Model under RE and Learning

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Author Info
Fabio Milani () (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

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Abstract

This paper aims to infer the evolving Fed's inflation target by estimating a monetary model under the assumptions of RE and learning. The results emphasize how different assumptions about expectations may have important effects on the inferred target movements.

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File URL: http://www.economics.uci.edu/docs/2006-07/Milani-04.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 060704.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:060704

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Postal: Irvine, CA 92697-3125
Phone: (949) 824-5788
Web page: http://www.econ.uci.edu/
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Related research
Keywords: Time-varying inflation target; Learning; Expectations; Bayesian estimation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0401006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 050607, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Richard Dennis, 2003. "Inferring policy objectives from economic outcomes," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  7. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 719-34. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Fabio Milani, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Taeyoung Doh, 2007. "What does the yield curve tell us about the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target?," Research Working Paper RWP 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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