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Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach

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  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    () (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    () (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics in its series IREA Working Papers with number 201116.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision: Sep 2011
Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201116

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Postal: Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona
Web page: http://www.ub.edu/irea/
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Keywords: Sovereign bond yields; causality; time-varying contagion; euro area; peripheral EMU countries. JEL classification:E44; F36; G15;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Javier Campos & Juan Luis Jiménez & Ancor Suárez-Alemán, 2012. "“Not always sunny in paradise: prices and brand diversity in touristic areas supermarkets”," IREA Working Papers 201211, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2012.
  2. Erika Badillo & Rosina Moreno, 2012. "“What Drives the Choice of Partners in R&D Cooperation? Heterogeneity across Sectors”," AQR Working Papers 201206, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2012.
  3. Ana María Osorio & Catalina Bolancé & Manuela Alcañiz, 2011. "Measuring early childhood health: a composite index comparing Colombian departments," IREA Working Papers 201122, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2011.
  4. Juan Luis Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero, 2012. "“Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator: why firms do not increase prices?”," IREA Working Papers 201205, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2012.
  5. Jordi Perdiguero, 2011. "Vertical relations and local competition: an empirical approach," IREA Working Papers 201124, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2011.
  6. Jaume Belles-Sampera & José M. Merigó & Montserrat Guillén & Miguel Santolino, 2012. "The connection between distortion risk measures and ordered weighted averaging operators," IREA Working Papers 201201, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2012.
  7. Esther Goya & Esther Vayá & Jordi Suriñach, 2012. "“Do intra- and inter-industry spillovers matter? CDM model estimates for Spain”," AQR Working Papers 201207, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2012.
  8. Miguel Santolino & Catalina Bolancé & Manuela Alcañiz, 2011. "Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain," IREA Working Papers 201119, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2011.
  9. Jordi Perdiguero & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2012. "“Policy options for the promotion of electric vehicles: a review”," IREA Working Papers 201208, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  10. Ernest Miguélez & Rorina Moreno, 2012. "“What attracts knowledge workers? The role of space, social connections, institutions, jobs and amenities”," IREA Working Papers 201204, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2012.
  11. Peter Claeys & Luis Costa, 2012. "“A Note on the Relationship Between the Cyclicality of Markups and Fiscal Policy”," IREA Working Papers 201215, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  12. Germà Bel & Xavier Fageda & Melania Mur, 2011. "Why do municipalities cooperate to provide local public services? An empirical analysis," IREA Working Papers 201118, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2011.
  13. Jordi López-Tamayo & Vicente Royuela & Jordi Suriñach, 2012. "“Building a “quality in work” index in Spain”," AQR Working Papers 201204, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Feb 2012.
  14. Xavier Fageda & Marta Gonzalez-Aregall, 2012. "“Regulation of Port Charges in Spain: Global versus Local Competition”," IREA Working Papers 201217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2012.
  15. Daniel Albalate, 2012. "“The Institutional, Economic and Social Determinants of Local Government Transparency”," IREA Working Papers 201210, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2012.
  16. Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Piersanti Giovanni, 2013. "Theory and practice of contagion in monetary unions. Domino effects in EU Mediterranean countries: The case of Greece, Italy and Spain," wp.comunite 0098, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  17. María Lorena Marí del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2012. "“Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the U.S. Dollar?”," IREA Working Papers 201216, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2012.
  18. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & R. Richard Geddes, 2012. "“The determinants of contractual choice for private involvement in infrastructure projects in the United States”," IREA Working Papers 201220, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2012.
  19. Akdoğu, Serpil Kahraman, 2012. "CDS, bond spread and sovereign debt crisis in peripherial EU," MPRA Paper 40340, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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