The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real Option Model
AbstractThe hazard rate of investment is derived within a real option model, and its properties are analyzed in order to directly study the relation between uncertainty and investment. Maximum likelihood estimates of the hazard are calculated using a sample of MNEs that have invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1990-1998. Employing a standard, non-parametric specification of the hazard, our measure of uncertainty has a negative effect on investment, but the reduced-form model is unable to control for nonlinearities in the relationship. The structural estimation of the option-based hazard is instead able to account for the non-linearities and exhibits a significant value of waiting, though the latter is independent from our measure of uncertainty. This finding supports the existence of alternative channels through which uncertainty can affect investment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 259.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/
Other versions of this item:
- Enrico Pennings & Carlo Altomonte, 2006. "The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real-option Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 569-593, October.
- NEP-ALL-2004-05-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-05-26 (Finance)
- NEP-IFN-2004-05-26 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harchaoui, T. & Lasserre, P., 1995.
"Testing the Option Vakue Theory of Irreversible Investment,"
95b04, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Harchaoui, Tarek M & Lasserre, Pierre, 2001. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-66, February.
- Tarek M. Harchaoui & Pierre Lasserre, 1995. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-41, CIRANO.
- Tarek M. Harchaoui & Pierre Lasserre, 1999. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," Cahiers de recherche du DÃ©partement des sciences Ã©conomiques, UQAM 9905, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
- Tarek M. Harchaoui & Pierre Lasserre, 1999. "Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-35, CIRANO.
- Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
- Blandon, Josep Garcia, 2001. "The timing of foreign direct investment under uncertainty: evidence from the Spanish banking sector," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 213-224, June.
- Giorgio De Santis & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 1994.
"Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
- Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004.
"Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: a dynamic panel analysis,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-22, March.
- Kai Carstensen & Farid Toubal, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1143, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: A dynamic panel analysis," Munich Reprints in Economics 19965, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Robert Lensink, 2002. "Is the uncertainty-investment link non-linear? Empirical evidence for developed economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 131-147, March.
- Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
- Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-88, November.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995.
"Emerging Equity Market Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A & Pesaran, M Hashem & Sharma, Sunil, 1994. "A Duration Model of Irreversible Oil Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S95-112, Suppl. De.
- Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998.
"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
- Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
- n/a, 2002. "The Role of Efficiency as an Explanation of International Income Differences," NIESR Discussion Papers 137, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
- John V. Leahy & Toni M. Whited, 1995.
"The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts,"
NBER Working Papers
4986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
- Guiso, L. & Parigi, G., 1996.
"Investment and Demand Uncertainty,"
289, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner & Weichenrieder, Alfons J., 1997.
"Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19562, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 1997. "Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 177-210, 04.
- Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
- J Hatzius, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0336, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1998. "Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 513-533, September.
- Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
- J. Hatzius, 1997. "Foreign direct investment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20351, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Altomonte, Carlo & Pennings, Enrico, 2008. "Learning from foreign investment by rival firms: Theory and evidence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1203-1217, September.
- Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., . "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Swinnen, Johan F.M. & Vercammen, James, 2006. "Uncertainty and Specific Investment with Weak Contract Enforcement," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21044, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- George Dikos & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2012. "Econometric testing of the real option hypothesis: evidence from investment in oil tankers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 121-145, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.