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Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics

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  • Wolfgang Karl Härdle,Piotr Majer
  • Melanie Schienle

Abstract

Using a Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model (DSFM) we investigate the term structure of interest rates. The proposed methodology is applied to monthly interest rates for four southern European countries: Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain from the introduction of the Euro to the recent European sovereign-debt crisis. Analyzing this extraordinary period, we compare our approach with the standard market method - dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Our findings show that two nonparametric factors capture the spatial structure of the yield curve for each of the bond markets separately. We attributed both factors to the slope of the yield curve. For panel term structure data, three nonparametric factors are necessary to explain 95% variation. The estimated factor loadings are unit root processes and reveal high persistency. In comparison with the benchmark model, the DSFM technique shows superior short term forecasting.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2012-048.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-048

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Keywords: yield curve; term structure of interests rates; semiparametric model; factor structure; prediction;

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Trück, 2010. "The dynamics of hourly electricity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Ralf Brüggemann & Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo & Carsten Trenkler, 2006. "VAR Modeling for Dynamic Semiparametric Factors of Volatility Strings," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  6. Bing-Huei Lin, 2002. "Fitting term structure of interest rates using B-splines: the case of Taiwanese Government bonds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 57-75.
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  8. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
  9. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
  10. Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen & Byeong U. Park, 2007. "Time Series Modelling with Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Andrija Mihoci, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Liquidity Supply Using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-044, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Borak, Szymon & Weron, Rafal, 2008. "A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics," MPRA Paper 10421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  14. Matthias Fengler & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen, 2005. "A Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model for Implied Volatility String Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  15. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. " Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-48, May.
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  18. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
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