Modelling and Forecasting Liquidity Supply Using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics
AbstractWe model the dynamics of ask and bid curves in a limit order book market using a dynamic semiparametric factor model. The shape of the curves is captured by a factor structure which is estimated nonparametrically. Corresponding factor loadings are assumed to follow multivariate dynamics and are modelled using a vector autoregressive model. Applying the framework to four stocks traded at the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2002, we show that the suggested model captures the spatial and temporal dependencies of the limit order book. Relating the shape of the curves to variables reflecting the current state of the market, we show that the recent liquidity demand has the strongest impact. In an extensive forecasting analysis we show that the model is successful in forecasting the liquidity supply over various time horizons during a trading day. Moreover, it is shown that the model’s forecasting power can be used to improve optimal order execution strategies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-044.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
limit order book; liquidity risk; semiparametric model; factor structure; prediction;
Other versions of this item:
- Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Mihoci, Andrija, 2009. "Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2009-09-26 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MST-2009-09-26 (Market Microstructure)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
- Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen & Byeong U. Park, 2007.
"Time Series Modelling with Semiparametric Factor Dynamics,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2007-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & HÃ¤rdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ranaldo, Angelo, 2004. "Order aggressiveness in limit order book markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-74, January.
- Liu, Wai-Man, 2009. "Monitoring and limit order submission risks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 107-141, February.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
- Johnson, Timothy C., 2008. "Volume, liquidity, and liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 388-417, February.
- Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 154-167, November.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Huang, Ruihong, 2012.
"The market impact of a limit order,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 501-522.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Ruihong Huang, 2009. "The Market Impact of a Limit Order," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Huang, Ruihong, 2009. "The market impact of a limit order," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Wolfgang Karl Härdle,Piotr Majer & Melanie Schienle, 2012. "Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting using Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-048, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011.
"Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, April.
- Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011. "Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378.
- Robert Engle & Michael Fleming & Eric Ghysels & Giang Nguyen, 2012. "Liquidity, volatility, and flights to safety in the U.S. treasury market: evidence from a new class of dynamic order book models," Staff Reports 590, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.