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Booms and Busts in EMU

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  • Gottfries, Nils

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

A floating exchange rate combined with a clear inflation target can be a powerful stabilizer even if there are fluctuations in exchange rates that are unrelated to current fundamentals. Under plausible conditions, most of the stabilisation will occur through the exchange rate, and fundamental shocks will generate considerable medium term exchange rate volatility. The consequences of asymmetric shocks inside EMU are worse than envisaged in early analyses of the EMU project such as Calmfors et al. (1997). Inflation and real interest rate differentials arise which magnify the imbalances and cause boom-bust cycles in the member countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2003:29.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 09 Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2003_029

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: optimal currency area; imperfect competition; interest parity; real interest rate;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aronsson, Thomas & Blomquist, Sören, 2004. "Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods in an Economic Federation," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 636, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1761, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Sören Blomquist & Vidar Christiansen, 2008. "Taxation and Heterogeneous Preferences," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 64(2), pages 218-244, June.
  4. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  5. Peter Backé & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries: An Interpretation within the New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1836, CESifo Group Munich.

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