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Booms and Busts in EMU

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  • Gottfries, Nils

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

A floating exchange rate combined with a clear inflation target can be a powerful stabilizer even if there are fluctuations in exchange rates that are unrelated to current fundamentals. Under plausible conditions, most of the stabilisation will occur through the exchange rate, and fundamental shocks will generate considerable medium term exchange rate volatility. The consequences of asymmetric shocks inside EMU are worse than envisaged in early analyses of the EMU project such as Calmfors et al. (1997). Inflation and real interest rate differentials arise which magnify the imbalances and cause boom-bust cycles in the member countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottfries, Nils, 2003. "Booms and Busts in EMU," Working Paper Series 2003:29, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2003_029
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1761, CESifo.
    2. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Thomas Aronsson & Sören Blomquist, 2008. "Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods in an Economic Federation," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(1), pages 125-143, February.
    4. Sören Blomquist & Vidar Christiansen, 2008. "Taxation and Heterogeneous Preferences," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 64(2), pages 218-244, June.
    5. Peter Backé & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries: An Interpretation within the New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1836, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal currency area; imperfect competition; interest parity; real interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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