Catching-up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries: An Interpretation within the New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework
AbstractCredit to the private sector has risen rapidly in many Central and Eastern European EU Member States (MS) and acceding countries (AC) in recent years. The lending boom has recently been particularly strong in the segment of loans to households, primarily mortgage-based housing loans, and in those countries that operate currency boards or other forms of hard pegs. The main aim of this paper is to propose a conceptual framework to analyze the observed developments with a view to exploring some policy implications at a stage in which these countries are preparing for their prospective integration with the euro area. To achieve this, we first use a stylized New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) framework, which has recently been advanced by Goodfriend (2002) and Goodfriend and King (2000). We then discuss the implications of the NNS model for credit dynamics and ensuing monetary policy challenges. Specifically, we emphasize consumption smoothing as an important channel of the observed credit expansion and we show how it is related to and how it affects the monetary policy making in MS and AC. In doing so, we place our discussion in the context of the monetary integration process in general and the nominal convergence process in particular.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1836.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
credit booms; new neoclassical synthesis; currency boards; euro area; convergence process;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-11-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2006-11-18 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2006-11-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-11-18 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 2002.
"Monetary Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis: A Primer,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 165-91, Summer.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 2004. "Monetary policy in the new neoclassical synthesis : a primer," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 21-45.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gottfries, Nils, 2003. "Booms and Busts in EMU," Working Paper Series 2003:29, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006.
"Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?,"
Working Paper Series
0687, European Central Bank.
- Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
- Beck, T.H.L. & Levine, R. & Loayza, N., 2000.
"Finance and the sources of growth,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125520, Tilburg University.
- Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1761, CESifo Group Munich.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001.
"The case for price stability,"
01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA,
LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Landerretche, Oscar & Valdés, Rodrigo, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 2811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Inci Ã–tker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund.
- Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007.
"Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?,"
6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2010. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," Working Paper Series 1187, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.