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A Repeat Sales Index Robust to Small Datasets

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Author Info

  • Michel Baroni

    (Finance Department - ESSEC Business School)

  • Fabrice Barthélémy

    (THEMA - Université de Cergy Pontoise)

  • Mokrane Mahdi

    (AEW Europe - AEW Europe)

Abstract

As suggested by D. Geltner, commercial properties indices have to be built using repeat sales instead of hedonic indices. The repeat sales method is a means of constructing real estate price indices based on a repeated observation of property transactions. These indices may be used as benchmarks for real estate portfolio managers. But the investors in general are also interested in introducing real estate performance in their portfolio to enhance the efficient frontier. Thus, expected return and volatility are the two key parameters. To create and to improve contracts on real estate indices, trend and volatility of these indices must be robust regarding to the periodicity of the index and the volume of transactions. This paper aims to test the robustness of the trend and volatility estimations for two indices: the classical Weighted Repeat Sales (Case & Shiller 1987) and a PCA factorial index (Baroni, Barthélémy and Mokrane 2007). The estimations are computed from a dataset of Paris commercial properties. The main findings are the trend and volatility estimates are biased for the WRS index and not for the PCA factorial index when the periodicity increases. Consequently, the level of the index at the end of the computing period is significantly different for various periodicities in the case of the WRS index. Globally, the PCA factorial seems to be more robust to the number of transactions. Firstly, we present the two methodologies and then the dataset. Finally we test the impact of the number of transactions per period on the trend and volatility estimates for each index and we give an interpretation of the results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00551732.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00551732

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Keywords: Index Estimations ; Property Transactions Volume ; Repeat Sales Indices;

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References

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  1. Maurer, Raimond & Pitzer, Martin & Sebastian, Steffen, 2001. "Construction of a Transaction Based Real Estate Index for the Paris Housing Market," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-17, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2008. "Is It Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 233-264, October.
  3. Allen C. Goodman & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 1998. "Dwelling Age Heteroskedasticity in Repeat Sales House Price Equations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 151-171.
  4. Eric Clapham & Peter Englund & John M. Quigley & Christian L. Redfearn, 2006. "Revisiting the Past and Settling the Score: Index Revision for House Price Derivatives," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 275-302, 06.
  5. Goetzmann, W.N. & Spiegel, M., 1992. "Non-temporal Components of Residential Real Estate Appreciation," Papers 92-20, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  6. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthe´le´my & Mahdi Mokrane, 2007. "APCA Factor Repeat Sales Index for Apartment Prices in Paris," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(2), pages 137-158.
  7. Daniel P. McMillen & Jonathan Dombrow, 2001. "A Flexible Fourier Approach to Repeat Sales Price Indexes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 207-225.
  8. Meese, Richard A & Wallace, Nancy E, 1997. "The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales, Hedonic-Regression and Hybrid Approaches," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 51-73, Jan.-Marc.
  9. John M. Clapp & Carmelo Giaccotto, 1999. "Revisions in Repeat-Sales Price Indexes: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 79-104.
  10. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "The Accuracy Of Real Estimate Indices: Repeat Sale Estimators," Papers fb-_90-17, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  12. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 851, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Thion, B. & Favarger, P. & Hoesli, M., 2001. "Indices des ventes repetees et modification de l'environnement immobilier," Papers 2001.02, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Universite de Geneve-.
  14. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2003. "Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt4045q0v3, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  15. Jesse M. Abraham & William S. Schauman, 1991. "New Evidence on Home Prices from Freddie Mac Repeat Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 333-352.
  16. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521424080 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September.
  18. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
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