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Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values

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  • Hwang, Min
  • Quigley, John M.

Abstract

This paper develops a model of price formation in the housing market which accounts for non-random selection of those dwellings sold on the market from the stock of existing houses. The model also accounts for changes in the quality of dwellings themselves and tests for mean reversion in individual house prices. The model is applied to a unique body of data representing all dwellings sold in Sweden's largest metropolitan area during the period 1982-1999. The analysis compares house price indices that account for selectivity, quality change and mean reversion with the conventional repeat sales models used to describe the course of metropolitan housing prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy in its series Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series with number qt4045q0v3.

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Date of creation: 23 Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:bphupl:qt4045q0v3

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Related research

Keywords: house price index; selectivity; mean reversion; hybrid model; Social and Behavioral Sciences;

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References

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  1. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
  2. G. Donald Jud & Terry G. Seaks, 1994. "Sample Selection Bias in Estimating Housing Sales Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 289-298.
  3. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7ph788mn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-74, December.
  5. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
  6. Case, Bradford & Quigley, John M, 1991. "The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 50-58, February.
  7. Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-87, Jan.-Marc.
  8. Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September.
  9. John F. Kain & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Housing Markets and Racial Discrimination: A Microeconomic Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kain75-1.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
  2. Campbell, Rachel & Graddy, Kathryn & Hamilton, Jonathan, 2009. "Repeat Sales Indexes: Estimation Without Assuming that Errors in Asset Returns Are Independently Distributed," CEPR Discussion Papers 7344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Marc Francke, 2010. "Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 24-52, July.
  4. Wensheng Peng & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study," Working Papers 052007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mokrane Mahdi, 2009. "A Repeat Sales Index Robust to Small Datasets," Post-Print hal-00551732, HAL.
  6. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2006. "Efficiency In Housing Markets: Do Home Buyers Know How To Discount?," Working Papers in Economics 232, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  7. Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  8. Mick Silver, 2012. "Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis," IMF Working Papers 12/125, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
  10. S. Jansen & P. Vries & H. Coolen & C. Lamain & P. Boelhouwer, 2008. "Developing a House Price Index for The Netherlands: A Practical Application of Weighted Repeat Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 163-186, August.
  11. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
  12. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthe´le´my & Mahdi Mokrane, 2007. "APCA Factor Repeat Sales Index for Apartment Prices in Paris," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(2), pages 137-158.

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