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Selectivity, Quality Adjustment and Mean Reversion in the Measurement of House Values

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  • Min Hwang

    ()

  • John M. Quigley

    ()

Abstract

This paper develops a model of price formation in the housing market which accounts for the non-random selection of those dwellings sold on the market from the stock of existing houses. The model we develop also accounts for changes in the quality of dwellings themselves and tests for mean reversion in individual house prices. The model is applied to a unique body of data representing all dwellings sold in Sweden's largest metropolitan area during the period 1982--1999. The analysis compares house price indices that account for selectivity, quality change and mean reversion with the conventional repeat sales models used to describe the course of metropolitan housing prices. We find that the repeat sales method yields systematically large biased estimates of the value of the housing stock. Our comparison suggests that the more general approach to the estimation of housing prices or housing wealth yields substantially improved estimates of the course of housing prices and housing wealth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2_3 (03)
Pages: 161-178

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:28:y:2004:i:2_3:p:161-178

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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  1. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7ph788mn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Case, Bradford & Quigley, John M, 1991. "The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 50-58, February.
  3. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
  4. John F. Kain & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Housing Markets and Racial Discrimination: A Microeconomic Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kain75-1, July.
  5. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-74, December.
  6. Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September.
  7. G. Donald Jud & Terry G. Seaks, 1994. "Sample Selection Bias in Estimating Housing Sales Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 289-298.
  8. Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-87, Jan.-Marc.
  9. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
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Cited by:
  1. Mick Silver, 2012. "Why House Price Indexes Differ," IMF Working Papers 12/125, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  3. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Erik Hjalmarsson & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Efficiency in housing markets: do home buyers know how to discount?," International Finance Discussion Papers 879, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Marc Francke, 2010. "Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 24-52, July.
  6. Kathryn Graddy & Jonathan Hamilton & Rachel Pownall, 2012. "Repeat‐Sales Indexes: Estimation without Assuming that Errors in Asset Returns Are Independently Distributed," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 131-166, 03.
  7. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthe´le´my & Mahdi Mokrane, 2007. "APCA Factor Repeat Sales Index for Apartment Prices in Paris," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(2), pages 137-158.
  8. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
  9. Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mokrane Mahdi, 2009. "A Repeat Sales Index Robust to Small Datasets," Post-Print hal-00551732, HAL.
  10. Wensheng Peng & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study," Working Papers 052007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  11. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2009. "Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2150-2163, November.
  12. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
  13. S. Jansen & P. Vries & H. Coolen & C. Lamain & P. Boelhouwer, 2008. "Developing a House Price Index for The Netherlands: A Practical Application of Weighted Repeat Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 163-186, August.

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