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Prospects for India's cereal supply and demand to 2020:

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  • Bhalla, G. S.
  • Hazell, P. B. R.
  • Kerr, John M.
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    Abstract

    The possibility of an emerging cereal gap of serious proportions by the year 2020, is a useful illustration of the kind of constructive dialogue IFPRI hopes to encourage. It responds to several quite recent developments, notably the rapid expansion of India's industrial and service sectors since the 1991 structural reforms, the improved prospects for continued growth over the next few decades, and the likelihood of rising per capita incomes that could generate substantially increased demand for livestock products. As demand for livestock products grows, livestock production could increasingly depend on cereals for feed — perhaps as much as 50 million tons by 2020, according to G.S. Bhalla, Peter Hazell, and John Kerr, authors of this 2020 discussion paper on Prospects for Balancing Cereal Needs in India to 2020. These conclusions differ somewhat from other IFPRI studies, which have generally found that growth in demand for livestock products will be lower than the current study. This divergence of views is a useful signal to policymakers to pay careful attention to trends in demand for livestock products in India in the coming years. This study and the rest of IFPRI's 2020 research have consistently pointed to the vital link between agricultural policies and prospects for production growth in the next two decades. (from Forward by Per Pinstrup-Andersen)

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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/pubs_2020_dp_dp29.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series 2020 vision discussion papers with number 29.

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    Date of creation: 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fpr:2020dp:29

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    Related research

    Keywords: Grain Yields India.; Food supply India Forecasting.; Grain as feed India Forecasting.; Consumption (Economics) India.; Livestock India.;

    References

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    1. Scherr, Sara J. & Hazell, P. B. R., 1994. "Sustainable agricultural development strategies in fragile lands:," EPTD discussion papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Huang, Jikun. & Bouis, Howarth E., 1996. "Structural changes in the demand for food in Asia.:," 2020 vision discussion papers 11, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Sarma, J. S. & Gandhi, Vasant P., 1990. "Production and consumption of foodgrains in India: implications of accelerated economic growth and poverty alleviation," Research reports 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Pender, John L. & Kerr, John M., 1996. "Determinants of farmers' indigenous soil and water conservation investments in India's semi-arid tropics:," EPTD discussion papers 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Fan, Shenggen & Hazell, P. B. R., 1999. "Are returns to public investment lower in less-favored rural areas?: an empirical analysis of India," EPTD discussion papers 43, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:
    1. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    2. Keyzer, Michiel A. & Merbis, Max D. & Pavel, Ferdinand, 2002. "Can We Feed the Animals? Origins and Implications of Rising Meat Demand," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24955, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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