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Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories

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  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • Fabian Lange

Abstract

We use a novel approach to studying the heterogeneity in the job finding rates of the nonemployed by classifying the nonemployed by labor force status (LFS) histories, instead of using only one-month LFS. Job finding rates differ substantially across LFS histories: they are 25-30% among those currently out of the labor force (OLF) with recent employment, 10% among those currently OLF who have been unemployed but not employed in the previous two months, and 2% among those who have been OLF in all three previous months. This heterogeneity cannot be deduced from the one-month LFS or from one-month responses to the CPS survey questions about desire to work or recent search activity. We conclude that LFS histories is an important predictor of the nonemployed's job finding probability, particularly for those OLF.

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  • Marianna Kudlyak & Fabian Lange, 2014. "Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories," Working Paper 14-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-18
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    2. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    3. Lange, Fabian & Papageorgiou, Theodore, 2020. "Beyond Cobb-Douglas: Flexibly Estimating Matching Functions with Unobserved Matching Efficiency," IZA Discussion Papers 13177, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Isabel Cairo & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 197-216, January.
    5. Shibata, Ippei, 2022. "Reassessing classification errors in the analysis of labor market dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2016. "Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 105-126.
    7. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Fabian Lange, 2014. "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 1-21.
    8. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 2019. "Unemployment, Marginal Attachment, and Labor Force Participation in Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 399-441.
    9. Fernando Martins & Domingos Seward, 2019. "Into the heterogeneities in the Portuguese labour market: an empirical assessment," Working Papers w201908, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Kuhn, Moritz & Ploj, Gasper, 2020. "Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-Cycle Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 13887, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Petr Sedlacek, 2016. "The aggregate matching function and job search from employment and out of the labor force," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 16-28, July.
    12. Song, Chen & Wei, Chao, 2019. "Unemployment or out of the labor force: A perspective from time allocation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Arne F. Lyshol & Plamen T. Nenov & Thea Wevelstad, 2021. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 35(1), pages 105-134, March.
    14. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Matthew Tudball, 2019. "Long Time Out: Unemployment and Joblessness in Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 355-397.
    15. Marianna Kudlyak, 2017. "Measuring Labor Utilization: The Non-Employment Index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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