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Accounting for unemployment in the Great Recession : nonparticipation matters

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  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • Felipe Schwartzman

Abstract

We conduct an accounting exercise of the role of worker flows between unemployment, employment, and labor force nonparticipation in the dynamics of the aggregate unemployment rate across four recent recessions: 1982-1983, 1990-1991, 2001, and 2007-2009 (the "Great Recession"). We show that, whereas during earlier recessions it was sufficient to examine the flows between employment and unemployment to account for the dynamics of the unemployment rate, this was not true in the Great Recession. The increased importance of the flows between nonparticipation and unemployment is documented across all age and gender groups.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 12-04.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:12-04

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles ; Unemployment ; Labor market;

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References

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  1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Smith, Jennifer C. & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 2011. "The role of worker flows in the dynamics and distribution of UK unemployment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 962, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Smith, Jennifer, 2010. "The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 944, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, 05.
  5. Aysegül Sahin & Joseph Song & Bart Hobijn, 2010. "The unemployment gender gap during the 2007 recession," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Feb).
  6. Gomes, Pedro Maia, 2010. "Labour Market Flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," IZA Discussion Papers 5327, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Veracierto, Marcelo, 2008. "On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1143-1157, September.
  8. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1319-38, November.
  9. Michael W. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 15979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
  11. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2012. "Is Labor Supply Important for Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 17779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2012. "A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession," Working Paper 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Peter A. Diamond, 2013. "Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 18761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2013. "On the importance of the participation margin for market fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2013-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Kudlyak, Marianna, 2013. "A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1, pages 25-43.
  5. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2012. "Labor-market polarization over the business cycle," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  6. Diamond, Peter A., 2013. "Structural unemployment," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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