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On the employment effect of technology : evidence from U.S. manufacturing for 1958-1996

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Yongsung Chang
Jay H. Hong

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Abstract

Recently, Galí and others have found that technological progress may be contractionary: a favorable technology shock reduces hours worked in the short run. We ask whether this observation is robust in disaggregate data. According to our VAR analysis of 458 four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries for 1958-1996, some industries do exhibit temporary reduction in hours in response to a permanent increase in TFP. However, there are far more industries in which technological progress significantly increases hours. Using micro data on average price duration, we ask whether the difference across industries is related to the stickiness of industry-output prices. Among 87 manufacturing goods, we do not find such a relation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 03-06.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:03-06

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Keywords: Technology ; Wages ; Employment;

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  3. Mikael Carlsson, 2003. "Measures of Technology and the Short-run Response to Technology Shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 105(4), pages 555-579, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2002. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1986, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Burnside, C & Eichenbaum, M & Rebelo, S, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," RCER Working Papers 402, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hall, Robert E., 1987. "Productivity and the business cycle," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 421-444, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Domenico J. Marchetti & francesco Nucci, 2001. "Unobserved Factor Utilization, Technology Shocks and Business Cycles," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  18. José Angulo & N. Cressie & C. Wikle & P. Soidán & M. Bande & C. Glasbey & John Kent & Ana Militino & Michael Stein, 1998. "Discussion," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 283-285, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Valerie Ramey & Neville Francis, 2002. "Is The Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisted," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Unknown, 1998. "Discussion," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 619-643, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Zvi Griliches & Frank R. Lichtenberg, 1984. "R&D and Productivity Growth at the Industry Level: Is There Still a Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: R & D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 465-502 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Domenico J. Marchetti & Francesco Nucci, 2004. "Pricing behavior and the comovement of productivity and labor: evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 524, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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