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Technology Shocks and Employment

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  • Fabrice Collard
  • Harris Dellas

Abstract

Recent empirical work has suggested that in response to a positive technology shock employment shows a persistent decline. This finding has raised doubts concerning the relevance of the RBC model as well as the quantitative significance of technology shocks as a source of aggregate fluctuations. We show that the standard, open economy, flexible price RBC model can easily match the negative conditional correlation between productivity and employment quite well if domestic and foreign goods are not good substitutes in the short run. The computed variance-decompositions also suggest that there is no empirical inconsistency between matching this correlation and accepting that technology shocks are the main source of variation in output while demand shocks are the main source of variation in employment. Moreover, using a low rather than a high degree of substitution does not worsen model performance along any other dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Employment," Diskussionsschriften dp0217, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0217
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene, 2021. "The Technology-Employment Trade-Off : Automation, Industry, and Income Effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9529, The World Bank.
    3. Artuç, Erhan & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2014. "R&D and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 54-71.
    4. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Tervala, Juha, 2008. "Technology Shocks and Employment in Open Economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-27.
    6. Bertinelli, Luisito & Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2022. "Labor market effects of technology shocks biased toward the traded sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Bodenstein, Martin, 2010. "Trade elasticity of substitution and equilibrium dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1033-1059, May.
    8. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2012. "Flexible Prices and the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 221-233, February.
    9. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Technology shocks, employment, and labor market frictions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Bibaswan Chatterjee & Rolando Escobar‐Posada & Goncalo Monteiro, 2023. "Anticipation in leisure—Effects on labor‐leisure choice," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(2), pages 384-412, June.
    11. Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "What are the effects of technology shocks on international labor markets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 806, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Ezzeddine Belgacem Mosbah & Parakramaweera Sunil Dharmapala, 2022. "Evaluating the Effects of COVID-19 and Vaccination on Employment Behaviour: A Panel Data Analysis Acrossthe World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.
    13. Domenico J. Marchetti & Francesco Nucci, 2007. "Pricing Behavior and the Response of Hours to Productivity Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1587-1611, October.
    14. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zanetti, Francesco, 2014. "Flexible prices, labor market frictions and the response of employment to technology shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 94-102.
    15. Federico S. Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "Estimating general equilibrium models: an application with labour market frictions," Technical Books, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 1, number 1, April.
    16. Martial Dupaigne & Patrick Fève, 2010. "Hours Worked and Permanent Technology Shocks in Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 69-86, February.
    17. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hami SAKA & Mehmet ORHAN & M.K. Savaş ÖKTE, 2021. "Empirics of technology and unemployment in advanced countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 183-200, Spring.
    19. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47.
    20. Artuç, Erhan & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2014. "R&D and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 54-71.
    21. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
    22. Zixi Liu, 2015. "Do debt and growth dance together? A DSGE model of a small open economy with sovereign debt," Working Papers 2015.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    technological shocks; employment; open economy; flexible prices; staggered prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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