IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1342.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spread Too Thin: The Impact of Lean Inventories

Author

Abstract

Widespread adoption of just-in-time (JIT) production has reduced inventory holdings. This paper finds that JIT creates a trade-off between firm profitability and vulnerability to large shocks. Empirically, JIT adopters experience higher sales and less volatility while also exhibiting heightened cyclicality and sensitivity to natural disasters. I explain these facts in a structurally estimated general equilibrium model where firms can adopt JIT. Relative to a no-JIT economy, the estimated model implies a 1.3% increase in firm value. At the same time, an unanticipated shock results in a roughly 15% deeper output contraction. This occurs because firms "stock out" or hoard materials.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Spread Too Thin: The Impact of Lean Inventories," International Finance Discussion Papers 1342, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1342
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2022.1342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1342.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/IFDP.2022.1342?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Meier, 2020. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Time to Build, and the Business Cycle," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_160, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    3. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    4. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, March.
    6. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    7. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    8. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    9. Julia Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2016. "(S,s) insights into the role of inventories in business cycles and high frequency fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 662, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Xiaodan Gao, 2018. "Corporate Cash Hoarding: The Role of Just-in-Time Adoption," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4858-4876, October.
    11. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Yoonsoo Lee, 2015. "Cross Sectoral Variation in the Volatility of Plant Level Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 1-29, March.
    12. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
    13. Lucian A. Taylor, 2010. "Why Are CEOs Rarely Fired? Evidence from Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2051-2087, December.
    14. Young, Eric R., 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using the Krusell-Smith algorithm and non-stochastic simulations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 36-41, January.
    15. Santiago Bazdresch & R. Jay Kahn & Toni M. Whited, 2018. "Estimating and Testing Dynamic Corporate Finance Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 322-361.
    16. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    18. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    19. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2017. "Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1553-1592.
    20. Eichenbaum, Martin S., 1984. "Rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-96, July.
    21. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-679, September.
    22. Evan L. Porteus, 1971. "Some Bounds for Discounted Sequential Decision Processes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 7-11, September.
    23. Caplin, Andrew S, 1985. "The Variability of Aggregate Demand with (S, s) Inventory Policies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1395-1409, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2004. "Modeling inventories over the business cycle," Working Papers 04-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
    7. Bertomeu, Jeremy & Marinovic, Iván & Terry, Stephen J. & Varas, Felipe, 2022. "The dynamics of concealment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 227-246.
    8. Zhiwei Xu & Yi Wen & pengfei Wang, 2012. "When Do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? ---A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies," 2012 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Shuhei Takahashi, 2020. "Time-Varying Wage Risk, Incomplete Markets, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 195-213, July.
    10. Leonardo Auernheimer & Danilo Trupkin, 2014. "The Role of Inventories and Capacity Utilization as Shock Absorbers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 70-85, January.
    11. Stephen J. Terry, 2017. "Alternative Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Firm Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1081-1111, September.
    12. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    13. Jinhee Woo, 2016. "The Cyclicality of Entry and Exit: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Imperfect Information," 2016 Meeting Papers 613, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
    15. Di Nola, Alessandro, 2015. "Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 68289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2013. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 249-276.
    17. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2005. "Inventory investment and output volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 75-86, January.
    18. Hall, George & Rust, John, 2000. "An empirical model of inventory investment by durable commodity intermediaries," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 171-214, June.
    19. Jinhee Woo, 2020. "Policy Implications of Investment Rate Distributions in the Korean Manufacturing Sector," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 36, pages 445-480.
    20. Sebastian Graves, 2023. "The State-Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 229-253, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inventory investment; Firm dynamics; Just-in-time production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.