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Why Are CEOs Rarely Fired? Evidence from Structural Estimation

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  • LUCIAN A. TAYLOR
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    Abstract

    I evaluate the forced CEO turnover rate and quantify effects on shareholder value by estimating a dynamic model. The model features learning about CEO ability and costly turnover. To fit the observed forced turnover rate, the model needs the average board of directors to behave as if replacing the CEO costs shareholders at least $200 million. This cost mainly reflects CEO entrenchment rather than a real cost to shareholders. The model predicts that shareholder value would rise 3% if we eliminated this perceived turnover cost, all else equal. The model also helps explain the relation between CEO firings, tenure, and profitability. Copyright (c) 2010 the American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 65 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 2051-2087

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:65:y:2010:i:6:p:2051-2087

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    Cited by:
    1. Chaigneau, Pierre & Sahuguet, Nicolas, 2012. "The structure of CEO pay: pay-for-luck and stock-options," CEPR Discussion Papers 9182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Miriam Schwartz-Ziv & Michael Weisbach, 2011. "What do Boards Really Do? Evidence from Minutes of Board Meetings," NBER Working Papers 17509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dittmann, Ingolf & Maug, Ernst & Zhang, Dan, 2011. "Restricting CEO pay," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 1200-1220, September.
    4. Steven N. Kaplan, 2012. "Executive Compensation and Corporate Governance in the U.S.: Perceptions, Facts and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 18395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Kuhnen, Camelia M., 2013. "CEO turnover in a competitive assignment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 351-372.
    6. Taylor, Lucian A., 2013. "CEO wage dynamics: Estimates from a learning model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 79-98.
    7. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    8. Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2011. "Why Do (Some) Households Trade So Much?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1630-1666.
    9. Pan, Yihui & Wang, Tracy Yue & Weisbach, Michael S., 2013. "Learning about CEO Ability and Stock Return Volatility," Working Paper Series 2013-05, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    10. Dow, James, 2013. "Boards, CEO entrenchment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 680-695.
    11. Benjamin E. Hermalin & Michael S. Weisbach, 2014. "Understanding Corporate Governance Through Learning Models of Managerial Competence," NBER Working Papers 20028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Schwartz-Ziv, Miriam & Weisbach, Michael S., 2013. "What do boards really do? Evidence from minutes of board meetings☆☆Miriam Schwartz-Ziv is from Harvard University and Northeastern University, e-mail: miriam.schwartz@mail.huji.ac.il. Michael S. W," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 349-366.

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