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Wage curve vs. Phillips curve: are there macroeconomic implications?

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Karl Whelan

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Abstract

The standard derivation of the accelerationist Phillips curve relates expected real wage inflation to the unemployment rate and invokes a constant price markup and adaptive expectations to generate the accelerationist price inflation formula. Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) argue that microeconomic evidence of a low autoregression coefficient in real wage regressions invalidates the macroeconomic Phillips curve. This conclusion has been disputed by a number of authors on the grounds that the true autoregression coefficient is close to 1. This paper shows that given the assumption of a constant price markup, micro-level real wage dynamics have no observable implications for macro data on wage and price inflation.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1997-51.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1997-51

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Keywords: Wages ; Macroeconomics;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:fth:prinin:343 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
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  5. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-67, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Enrique López & Martha Misas, . "Un Exámen Empírico de la Curva de Phillips en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 117, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel Sullivan, 2000. "Unemployment and wage growth: recent cross-state evidence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 41-54. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the Euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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