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Competencia intermodal en el corredor Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona ante la introducción del tren de alta velocidad

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  • Concepción Román
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    Abstract

    El análisis de la demanda constituye una pieza clave en la evaluación de proyectos de políticas públicas. Las decisiones de inversión en infraestructuras de transporte deben apoyarse en el conocimiento del comportamiento de la demanda en el área de influencia de dichas infraestructuras. Las disposiciones a pagar por disponer de nuevas alternativas o por mejorar las existentes representan también un elemento relevante a la hora de cuantificar los beneficios sociales de los proyectos. En este trabajo se realiza un análisis de la demanda que permite estudiar la competencia que ejercerá el tren de alta velocidad (AVE) sobre el resto de los modos de transporte en el corredor Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona. La atención se centra en las rutas de mayor demanda: Madrid-Zaragoza y Madrid-Barcelona. En el primer caso, se espera que el AVE ejerza una mayor competencia sobre el vehículo privado, mientras que en el segundo corredor se espera que capte un mayor número de viajeros del avión. El análisis se basa en la estimación de modelos de demanda desagregados de tipo Logit Jerárquico que utilizan la información proporcionada por encuestas de preferencias reveladas y declaradas dirigidas a los viajeros. Se analiza cuál es el efecto de las variables clave para la política de transporte y de otros factores que tradicionalmente no se incorporan a los modelos como el confort y la fiabilidad. Además de los valores del tiempo de viaje, acceso, y espera, se obtienen medidas de disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de retraso y por mejorar la comodidad en el avión. Se analiza la respuesta de la demanda ante varios escenarios de política que consideran mejoras en los servicios ferroviarios y posibles reacciones de los modos competidores y se calculan las elasticidades directas y cruzadas de la demanda del AVE con respecto a los principales atributos.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Economic Reports with number 11-08.

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    Date of creation: May 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:fda:fdacee:11-08

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    1. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Linnemer, Laurent, 2000. "Intermodal competition and regional inequalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 131-184, March.
    2. K. E. Haynes & C. Karlsson & U. Blum, 1997. "Introduction to the special issue The regional and urban effects of high-speed trains," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-20.
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    6. Kingsley E. Haynes, 1997. "Labor markets and regional transportation improvements: the case of high-speed trains An introduction and review," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 57-76.
    7. Laird, James J. & Nellthorp, John & Mackie, Peter J., 2005. "Network effects and total economic impact in transport appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 537-544, November.
    8. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
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