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Detection and Forecasting of Islamic Calendar Effects in Time Series Data: Revisited

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  • Nasir Hamid Rao
  • Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari
  • Abdul Jalil

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to revisit the pioneering work of Riazuddin and Khan (2002). A complete business cycle has been elapsed (2002-2010) since their study, so there is need to review the results with additional information. This revisited attempt, based on a theoretically specified framework, arrived at similar results and found significant impact of Islamic calendar. [WP 39]. [URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2011/wp39.pdf].

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:4290.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4290

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle; Islamic calneder; time series data; forecasting; detecting; Islam; religion; pakistan; theoretical; Ramadan; population; currency holdings; seasonal factors; Quantity Theory of Money (QTM); money; prices; income;

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References

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  1. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
  2. Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November.
  3. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers id:3005, eSocialSciences.
  4. Beaulieu, J Joseph & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-56, May.
  5. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1994. "Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 259-272, April.
  6. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
  7. Franses, Philip Hans & Hylleberg, Svend & Lee, Hahn S., 1995. "Spurious deterministic seasonality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 249-256, June.
  8. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1991. "Inappropriate use of seasonal dummies in regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-179, June.
  9. Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October.
  10. Birchenhall, C R, et al, 1989. "A Seasonal Model of Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 837-43, September.
  11. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Riaz Riazuddin, 2012. "Construction and Seasonal Patterns of Islamic Hijri Calendar Monthly Time Series: An Application to Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Pakistan," Working Papers id:4927, eSocialSciences.

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