Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia
AbstractCapitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate.However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultural production and trade, ultimately leaving the developing world as a net loser. With the anticipated declining agricultural share in the economy, a reduction in agricultural productivity would have small, but non-negligible negative impacts on Southeast Asia’s economic output. However, the expected increase of crop import dependence in the coming decades would make most Southeast Asian economies suffer more welfare losses through deteriorated terms of trade. Depending on a country’s economic structure, the negative effects are expected to be less for Singapore and Malaysia, but greater for Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. For Southeast Asia to cope with the potential agricultural damages arising from the expected changes in climate the region must concentrate on reversing its current trend of declining agricultural productivity.[ADBI WP NO 131]
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:1944.
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Note: Institutional Papers
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.esocialsciences.org
atmospheric concentration; Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change; Green Revolution; computable general equilibrium; evaporation; precipitation; AEZ analysis; Ricardian cross-sectional approach; Agricultural Productivity; Linkage; An Implicitly Direct Additive Demand System; Global Trade Analysis Project; International Monetary Fund’s; Baseline Agricultural Productivity Growth; Global Trade Analysis Project; Global cross-country analysis; agricultural damages; counterfactual scenario;
Other versions of this item:
- Fan Zhai & Juzhong Zhuang, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1921, eSocialSciences.
- NEP-AGR-2009-05-23 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-05-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2009-05-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2009-05-23 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2009-05-23 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Zilberman & Xuemei Liu & David Roland-Holst & David Sunding, 2004. "The economics of climate change in agriculture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-382, October.
- Ming Lu & Shiqing Jiang, 2008. "Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 63-80.
- Anderson, Jock R. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1994. "Sustaining growth in agriculture: a quantitative review of agricultural research investments," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(2), April.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003.
"Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems,"
2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa
25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Eales, James, 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," GTAP Working Papers 1182, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Anderson, Jock R. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1994. "Sustaining growth in agriculture: A quantitative review of agricultural research investments," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 107-123, April.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel, 1999. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 277-93, August.
- Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une thÃ©orie de la demande de produits diffÃ©renciÃ©s d'aprÃ¨s leur origine) (Una teorÃa de la demanda de productos dis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
- Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006.
"Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts,"
2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia
25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Ludena, Carlos & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Foster, Kenneth & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," GTAP Working Papers 2220, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Kumar, Ajay & Sharma, Pritee, 2013. "Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799â822.
- Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Manh Hai, Nguyen, 2012. "Examine the Agriculture, Poverty, and Climate Change Nexus in Vietnam," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126876, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Padma Prakash).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.