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Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

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  • Fan Zhai

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  • Juzhong Zhuang
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Abstract

Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate.However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultural production and trade, ultimately leaving the developing world as a net loser. With the anticipated declining agricultural share in the economy, a reduction in agricultural productivity would have small, but non-negligible negative impacts on Southeast Asia’s economic output. However, the expected increase of crop import dependence in the coming decades would make most Southeast Asian economies suffer more welfare losses through deteriorated terms of trade. Depending on a country’s economic structure, the negative effects are expected to be less for Singapore and Malaysia, but greater for Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. For Southeast Asia to cope with the potential agricultural damages arising from the expected changes in climate the region must concentrate on reversing its current trend of declining agricultural productivity.[ADBI WP NO 131]

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by eSocialSciences in its series Working Papers with number id:1944.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1944

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Keywords: atmospheric concentration; Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change; Green Revolution; computable general equilibrium; evaporation; precipitation; AEZ analysis; Ricardian cross-sectional approach; Agricultural Productivity; Linkage; An Implicitly Direct Additive Demand System; Global Trade Analysis Project; International Monetary Fund’s; Baseline Agricultural Productivity Growth; Global Trade Analysis Project; Global cross-country analysis; agricultural damages; counterfactual scenario;

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  1. David Zilberman & Xuemei Liu & David Roland-Holst & David Sunding, 2004. "The economics of climate change in agriculture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-382, October.
  2. Anderson, Jock R. & Pardey, Philip G. & Roseboom, Johannes, 1994. "Sustaining growth in agriculture: a quantitative review of agricultural research investments," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(2), April.
  3. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia, International Association of Agricultural Economists 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel, 1999. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 277-93, August.
  6. Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos dis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
  7. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  8. Ming Lu & Shiqing Jiang, 2008. "Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(6), pages 63-80.
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Cited by:
  1. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Manh Hai, Nguyen, 2012. "Examine the Agriculture, Poverty, and Climate Change Nexus in Vietnam," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, International Association of Agricultural Economists 126876, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799–822.
  4. Kumar, Ajay & Sharma, Pritee, 2013. "Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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