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Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation

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  • Yu, Bingxin
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Hai, Nguyen Manh

Abstract

Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two contributions to the literature. First, we estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural and water systems in Vietnam based on crop simulation, hydrological simulation, and river basin models. We then present a yield function approach that models technology advances and policy interventions to improve rice productivity and mitigate the impact of climate change, using a multilevel mixed effects model. This two-pronged approach allows rice yield changes to be linked with both biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. The results indicate that rice production is likely to be severely compromised by climate change. However, investment in rural infrastructure, such as irrigation and road, and human capital can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Due to substantial regional variations in impacts and responses, localized policy packages will be key for effective mitigation. Government policies targeting ethnic-minority and poor communities will be especially important components of climate change adaptation strategies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1015.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1015

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Keywords: Climate change; productivity; rice;

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References

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  1. Fan Zhai & Juzhong Zhuang, 2009. "Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:1944, eSocialSciences.
  2. Thurlow, James & Zhu, Tingju & Diao, Xinshen, 2009. "The impact of climate variability and change on economic growth and poverty in Zambia:," IFPRI discussion papers 890, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
  4. Jesus Felipe & Rana Hasan & J. S. L. McCombie, 2008. "Correcting for biases when estimating production functions: an illusion of the laws of algebra?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 441-459, May.
  5. Kees Jan Van Garderen & Chandra Shah, 2002. "Exact interpretation of dummy variables in semilogarithmic equations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 149-159, June.
  6. Minot, Nicholas & Baulch, Bob & Epperecht, Michael, 2006. "Poverty and inequality in Vietnam: spatial patterns and geographic determinants," Research reports 148, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2011. "Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers 1139, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Clemens Breisinger & Olivier Ecker & Perrihan Al-Riffai & Richard Robertson & Rainer Thiele, 2011. "Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Food Security: Evidence from Yemen," Kiel Working Papers 1747, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Pham Khanh Nam, 2010. "Cooperative Behavior, Social Capital and Development: Evidence from the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam," EEPSEA Research Report rr2010125, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Dec 2010.
  4. Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Fant, Charles & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Breisinger, Clemens & Zhu, Tingju & Al Riffai, Perrihan & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Funes, Jose & Verner, Dorte, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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