State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s
Abstract
This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged between 50 and the state pension age. We begin by examining the issue of duration dependence, using standard duration models. We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence. This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.Download Info
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Paper provided by Institute for Social and Economic Research in its series ISER Working Paper Series with number 2007-16.Length:
Date of creation: 18 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2007-16
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Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK
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Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Lorenzo Cappellari & Richard Dorsett & Getinet Haile, 2007. "State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro ieil0049, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2007-09-02 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2007-09-02 (Labour Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Costas Meghir & Whitehouse, E, 1995.
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- Costas Meghir & Edward Whitehouse, 1993. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W93/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
- Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2002. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP18/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C153-C170, March.
- Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
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"Ill health and retirement in Britain: a panel data based analysis,"
IFS Working Papers
W03/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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- David Haardt, 2007.
"Transitions Out Of and Back To Employment among Older Men and Women in the UK,"
Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers
197, McMaster University.
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Elsevier.
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Danilo Cavapozzi, 2008. "Health and Labor Supply Dynamics of Older Married Workers," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0073, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Maes, Marjan, 2008.
"poverty persistence among belgian elderly: true or spurious?,"
Working Papers
2008/10, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
- Grün, Carola & Mahringer, Helmut & Rhein, Thomas, 2011. "Low-wage jobs: a means for employment integration of the unemployed? : evidence from administrative data in Germany and Austria," IAB Discussion Paper 201101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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