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State dependence, duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in the employment transitions of the over-50s

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  • Cappellari, Lorenzo
  • Dorsett, Richard
  • Haile, Getinet

Abstract

This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged between 50 and the state pension age. We begin by examining the issue of duration dependence, using standard duration models. We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence. This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.

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File URL: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/working-papers/iser/2007-16.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Social and Economic Research in its series ISER Working Paper Series with number 2007-16.

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Date of creation: 18 Jul 2007
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Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:ese:iserwp:2007-16

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Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK
Phone: 44-1206-872957
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Web page: http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/
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Postal: Publications Office, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ UK
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Web: http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/

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  1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  2. Costas Meghir & Whitehouse, E, 1995. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
  4. Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C153-C170, March.
  5. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  6. Richard Disney & Carl Emmerson & Matthew Wakefield, 2003. "Ill health and retirement in Britain: a panel data based analysis," IFS Working Papers W03/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. David Haardt, 2007. "Transitions Out Of and Back To Employment among Older Men and Women in the UK," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 197, McMaster University.
  8. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  9. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
  10. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
  11. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Danilo Cavapozzi, 2008. "Health and Labor Supply Dynamics of Older Married Workers," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0073, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  2. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  3. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "poverty persistence among belgian elderly: true or spurious?," Working Papers 2008/10, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
  4. Grün, Carola & Mahringer, Helmut & Rhein, Thomas, 2011. "Low-wage jobs: a means for employment integration of the unemployed? : evidence from administrative data in Germany and Austria," IAB Discussion Paper 201101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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