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Stabilizing through Poor Information

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Author Info
Gabriel DESGRANGES and Stéphane GAUTHIER (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise; 33, boulevard du Port, 95011 Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France - ENSAE and CREST; 3 avenue Pierre Larousse, 92245 Malako¤ cedex,France)

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Abstract

This paper studies the effect of asymmetric information on equilibrium stability in a class of linear models where the actual state depends on the forecasts about it. Stability is deffined by the so-called eductive criterion which relies on common knowledge of rationality. The main result is that stability obtains when the proportion of uninformed agents is high enough. The expectational behavior of these agents indeed displays more inertia. This behavior, and then the actual outcome, are therefore easier to predict. This result is linked to the issue of informational efficiency. Extensions to cases with higher order uncertainty, additional agents heterogeneity, and sunspots are also considered.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2008-32.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2008-32

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Postal: 33, boulevard du port - 95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex
Phone: 33 1 34 25 60 63
Fax: 33 1 34 25 62 33
Email:
Web page: http://www.u-cergy.fr/thema
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Related research
Keywords: Asymmetric information; eductive stability; rational expecta- tions; stabilization.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  4. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 365-382, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Gabriel Desgranges & Pierre-Yves Geoffard & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Do Prices Transmit Rationally Expected Information?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 124-153, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. " Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," CDMA Working Paper Series 0802, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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