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Stabilizing through Poor Information

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel DESGRANGES
  • Stéphane GAUTHIER

    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise; 33, boulevard du Port, 95011 Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France - ENSAE and CREST; 3 avenue Pierre Larousse, 92245 Malako¤ cedex,France)

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of asymmetric information on equilibrium stability in a class of linear models where the actual state depends on the forecasts about it. Stability is deffined by the so-called eductive criterion which relies on common knowledge of rationality. The main result is that stability obtains when the proportion of uninformed agents is high enough. The expectational behavior of these agents indeed displays more inertia. This behavior, and then the actual outcome, are therefore easier to predict. This result is linked to the issue of informational efficiency. Extensions to cases with higher order uncertainty, additional agents heterogeneity, and sunspots are also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel DESGRANGES & Stéphane GAUTHIER, 2008. "Stabilizing through Poor Information," THEMA Working Papers 2008-32, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2008-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 1, pages 001-025, Central Bank of Chile.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric information; eductive stability; rational expecta- tions; stabilization.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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