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Quality Risk Aversion, Conjectures, and New Product Diffusion

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  • Francesco Bogliacino
  • Giorgio Rampa

Abstract

In this paper we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show in addition that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the asymptotic behavior of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties.

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Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2009_27.

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Date of creation: 09 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2009_27

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Keywords: Heterogeneity; Multiple equilibria; Lock-in; Product diffusion; Risk aversion.;

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  1. Jackson, Matthew O. & Yariv, Leeat, 2006. "Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games," Working Papers 1264, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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  16. Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
  17. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
  18. Banerjee, Abhijit & Fudenberg, Drew, 2004. "Word-of-mouth learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-22, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2010. "Monopolistic competition and new products: a conjectural equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 55-76, June.
  2. Giorgio Rampa & Francesco Bogliacino, 2012. "Expectational Bottlenecks and the Emerging of New Organizational Forms," Quaderni di Dipartimento 159, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.

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