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Memories of high inflation

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Author Info
Michael Ehrmann () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Panagiota Tzamourani () (Bank of Greece, 21, E. Venizelos Avenue, GR-10250 Athens, Greece.)

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Abstract

Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in the importance attached to price stability does therefore most likely reflect mitigated inflation concerns in an environment of low and stable inflation, but also the consequences of fading memories of high inflation. The longer central banks have successfully delivered price stability, the more important it is for them to engage in a proactive communication, especially with the younger generations, about the merits of low and stable inflation. JEL Classification: D10, E31, E52.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1095.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091095

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation aversion; inflation memories; hyperinflation; World Values Survey; inflation targeting.;

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  5. van Lelyveld, Iman, 1999. "Inflation or unemployment? Who cares?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 463-484, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1058-1086, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Stevenson, Betsey & Wolfers, Justin, 2008. "Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox," CEPR Discussion Papers 6944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. David G. Blanchflower, 2007. "Is Unemployment More Costly Than Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 13505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kuzin, Vladimir, 2006. "The inflation aversion of the Bundesbank: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1671-1686. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Layard, R. & Mayraz, G. & Nickell, S., 2008. "The marginal utility of income," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(8-9), pages 1846-1857, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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