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Dutch Households’ Perceptions of Economic Growth and Inflation

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  • Céline Christensen
  • Peter Els
  • Maarten Rooij

    ()

Abstract

This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expectations of past, current and future macroeconomic developments among a representative household panel (DNB Household Survey). Perceptions of economic growth and inflation show a large dispersion. For the median respondents, however, the quantitative perceptions were found to be quite accurate. There is some evidence that the concept of economic growth is a more abstract notion for the general public than inflation. The results on qualitative and quantitative perceptions of current inflation could be interpreted as the Dutch public having a high level of inflation aversion. Those who have declared themselves more knowledgeable are also more actively involved in dealing with financial issues. The empirical evidence seems to corroborate that individuals with higher self-assessed knowledge levels are better informed indeed and have more accurate quantitative perceptions of economic growth and inflation. The survey also provides further insights on the connection between perceptions of current and past economic developments on the one hand, and expectations of future developments on the other. At the individual level there is a strong and robust correlation between expected growth and inflation for the next year and the perceptions of the current situation (rule of thumb behavior). But short-term expectations are also influenced by the views individuals hold on longer-term developments. Moreover, the results confirm the observed persistence in annual acroeconomic growth and inflation figures.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10645-006-9004-3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.

Volume (Year): 154 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 277-294

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Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:154:y:2006:i:2:p:277-294

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100260

Related research

Keywords: consumer perceptions and expectations; economic literacy; DNB Household Survey;

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References

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  1. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," CeRP Working Papers 46, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  2. McFadden, Daniel, 1999. "Rationality for Economists?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 73-105, December.
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
  5. Marianne A. Hilgert & Jeanne M. Hogarth & Sondra G. Beverly, 2003. "Household financial management: the connection between knowledge and behavior," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 309-322.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert Mosch & Henri�tte Prast, 2008. "Confidence and trust: empirical investigations for the Netherlands and the financial sector," DNB Occasional Studies 602, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Inderst, Roman, 2014. "Financial Advice and Stock Market Participation," CEPR Discussion Papers 9922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ehrmann, Michael & Tzamourani, Panagiota, 2012. "Memories of high inflation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 174-191.
  4. Duffy, David & Lunn, Pete, 2008. "The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers," Papers WP261, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W., 2010. "From actual to perceived transparency: The case of the European Central Bank," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 388-399, June.
  6. Carin van der Cruijsen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2008. "Actual versus Perceived Transparency: The Case of the European Central Bank," DNB Working Papers 163, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2014. "Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 14-28, Bank of Canada.
  8. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.

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