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Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly? Evidence from Surveys of Subjective Wellbeing

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Justin Wolfers

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of business cycle volatility on measures of subjective well-being, including self-reported happiness and life satisfaction. I find robust evidence that high inflation and, to a greater extent, unemployment lower perceived well-being. Greater macroeconomic volatility also undermines well-being. These effects are moderate but important: eliminating unemployment volatility would raise well-being by an amount roughly equal to that from lowering the average level of unemployment by a quarter of a percentage point. The effects of inflation volatility on well-being are less easy to detect and are likely smaller.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9619.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9619

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D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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  1. Easterlin, Richard A., 1995. "Will raising the incomes of all increase the happiness of all?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-47, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Boskin, Michael J & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1978. "Optimal Redistributive Taxation when Individual Welfare Depends upon Relative Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 589-601, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert J. Shiller, 1997. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 13-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ossama Mikhail, 2004. "Economic Freedom and The Business Cycle: The Egyptian Experience," Macroeconomics 0402002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. David G. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "Entrepreneurship in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 2818, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. David G. Blanchflower, 2007. "Is Unemployment More Costly Than Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 13505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David A. Penn, 2005. "Determinants of Self-Reported Financial Security for Oklahoma County Households – An Application of Multiple Imputation," Working Papers 200504, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2005. "Gross National Happiness as an Answer to the Easterlin Paradox?," Macroeconomics 0504027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2007. "Happiness, Contentment and Other Emotions for Central Banks," NBER Working Papers 13622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Janet L. Yellen, 2004. "Stabilization policy: a reconsideration," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 1. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-49. [Downloadable!]
  10. Greg Hannsgen, 2007. "Are the Costs of the Business Cycle 'Trivially Small'?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_492, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Ehrmann & Panagiota Tzamourani, 2009. "Memories of high inflation," Working Paper Series 1095, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. David G. Blanchflower, 2008. "International evidence on well-being," NBER Working Papers 14318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Pavel Luengas & Inder J. Ruprah, 2009. "Should Central Banks Target Happiness? Evidence from Latin America," OVE Working Papers 0209, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE). [Downloadable!]
  14. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2002. "The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-17, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques, revised Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Marc Hofstetter, 2009. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America: Toward a Monetary Union?," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 005855, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE. [Downloadable!]
  16. Vicente Royuela & Jordi Suriñach, 2009. "Quality in work and aggregate productivity," IREA Working Papers 200901, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  17. Lena Malesevic Perovic, 2008. "Subjective Economic Well-being in Transition Countries: Investigating the Relative Importance of Macroeconomic Variables," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(4), pages 519-537. [Downloadable!]
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