This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Dutch households' perceptions of economic growth and inflation

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Céline Christensen
Peter van Els
Maarten van Rooij

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expectations of past, current and future macroeconomic developments among a representative household panel (DNB Household Survey). Perceptions of economic growth and inflation show a large dispersion. For the median respondents, however, the quantitative perceptions were found to be quite accurate. There is some evidence that the concept of economic growth is a more abstract notion for the general public than inflation. The results on qualitative and quantitative perceptions of current inflation could be interpreted as the Dutch public having a high level of inflation aversion. Those who have declared themselves more knowledgeable are also more actively involved in dealing with financial issues. The empirical evidence seems to corroborate that individuals with higher self-assessed knowledge levels are better informed indeed and have more accurate quantitative perceptions of economic growth and inflation. The survey also provides further insights on the connection between perceptions of current and past economic developments on the one hand, and expectations of future developments on the other. At the individual level there is a strong and robust correlation between expected growth and inflation for the next year and the perceptions of the current situation (rule of thumb behavior). But short-term expectations are also influenced by the views individuals hold on longer-term developments. Moreover, the results confirm the observed persistence in annual acroeconomic growth and inflation figures.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20Paper%20No%2E%2093-2006_tcm47-146750.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 093.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:093

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Arjen Siegmann).

Related research
Keywords: individual consumer perceptions and expectations; empirical knowledge of inflation and economic growth; rule of thumb behavior; DNB Household survey;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McFadden, Daniel, 1999. "Rationality for Economists?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 73-105, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1115, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," CeRP Working Papers 46, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marianne A. Hilgert & Jeanne M. Hogarth & Sondra G. Beverly, 2003. "Household financial management: the connection between knowledge and behavior," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 309-322. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Duffy, David & Lunn, Pete, 2008. "The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers," Papers WP261, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Carin van der Cruijsen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2008. "Actual versus Perceived Transparency: The Case of the European Central Bank," DNB Working Papers 163, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All the bibliographic data shown here has been contributed by volunteers, thereby helping to keep this service free.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-10.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.