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Study of the dollar-euro exchange rate

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  • Ariño, Miguel A.

    ()
    (IESE Business School)

  • Canela, Miguel A.

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we broadly describe the changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate from the time the euro came into effect at the beginning of 1999 until the end of 2005, using daily data. We show how movements in this exchange rate can be presented in different ways, depending on the time scale we use. First, if we focus on periods of more than six months, the changes in the dollar-euro rate can be described using a succession of linear trends. Superimposed on this trend line are cycles lasting from one to three months. Lastly, on a daily scale, the exchange rate behavior is virtually unpredictable, very close to what econometricians call white noise. These patterns are not exclusive to the dollar-euro rate, but are shared by the dollar exchange rates of most free-floating currencies. Taking the exchange value of the dollar against a basket of currencies used by the Federal Reserve, we show that the patterns we observe may be attributed to changes in the "intrinsic" value of the dollar.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/620.

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    Length: 19 pages
    Date of creation: 25 Mar 2006
    Date of revision: 30 Mar 2006
    Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0620

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    Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
    Web page: http://www.iese.edu/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Exchange rate; volatility; trade weighted exchange index; random walk;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    4. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. " A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-85, June.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 0452, European Central Bank.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, octubre-d.
    8. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    10. Hazelton M.L., 2003. "A Graphical Tool for Assessing Normality," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 285-288, November.
    11. R. F. Engle & A. J. Patton, 2001. "What good is a volatility model?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 237-245.
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