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Financial Instability under Floating Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Besancenot, Damien () (University of Paris 2 and ERMES)
Vranceanu, Radu () (ESSEC Business School)

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Abstract

At the end of the nineties, many developing countries featured an open capital market and relied heavily on dollar-debt financing of their economy. This paper analyses whether, in this context, clean floating can be a sustainable policy choice. The model is cast as a game between successive generations of investors who decide whether they buy or not the debt of a representative firm. The exchange rate is subject to random shocks, which makes uncertain the private sector’s solvency. We show that a small risk of insolvency would bring about a much larger risk of illiquidity. A rational expectation equilibrium without default can be put forward only in the highly improbable case when the currency is extremely overvalued. The case against flexible exchange rates may be stronger than usually thought.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School in its series ESSEC Working Papers with number DR 03011.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-03011

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Postal: ESSEC Research Center, BP 105, 95021 Cergy, France
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Related research
Keywords: Floating; Rational Expectations; Financial Crises; Developing Countries;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate after Argentina," Working Papers 74, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Testing the purchasing power parity in pooled systems of error correction models," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 45-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Besancenot, Damien & Huynh, Kim & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Default on sustainable public debt: illiquidity suspect convicted," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 205-211, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  13. Cowan, kevin & Quy-Toan Do, 2003. "Financial dollarization and central bank credibility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3082, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Besancenot, Damien & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Excessive Liability Dollarization in a Simple Signaling Model," ESSEC Working Papers DR 04001, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Damien Besancenot & Radu Vranceanu, 2006. "Dollar Debt in Developing Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Global Economy Journal, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(1). [Downloadable!]
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