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Default, Electoral Uncertainty and the Choice of Exchange Regime

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Author Info
Hefeker, Carsten
Abstract

The paper explores the interaction between debt crises and devaluation. Since the optimal level of devaluation in a crisis depends on the level of debt that has to be serviced, a default makes a devaluation less likely. Expected devaluation depends thus on expectations about default which is also a function of the type of policymaker. Therefore, the decision to devalue can be forced upon the government by adverse expectations about default and the type of policymaker in office. I also explore how these uncertainties affect the policymaker’s choice of exchange rate regime.

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 with number 13.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6536

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Related research
Keywords: debt crisis currency crisis exchange rate regime

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate after Argentina," Working Papers 74, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Samir Jahjah & Peter Montiel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/60, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcos Chamon, 2004. "Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling?," IMF Working Papers 04/99, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Masson, Paul R, 1999. "Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 70-84, February.
  6. Berger, Helge & Jensen, Henrik & Schjelderup, Guttorm, 2001. "To peg or not to peg?: A simple model of exchange rate regime choice in small economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 161-167, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Roberto Chang, 2002. "Financial Crises and Political Crises," Departmental Working Papers 200229, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
    Other versions:
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