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Default, Electoral Uncertainty and the Choice of Exchange Regime

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Author Info
Hefeker, Carsten

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Abstract

The paper explores the interaction between debt crises and devaluation. Since the optimal level of devaluation in a crisis depends on the level of debt that has to be serviced, a default makes a devaluation less likely. Expected devaluation depends thus on expectations about default which is also a function of the type of policymaker. Therefore, the decision to devalue can be forced upon the government by adverse expectations about default and the type of policymaker in office. I also explore how these uncertainties affect the policymaker?s choice of exchange rate regime. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 with number 13.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6536

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Related research
Keywords: debt crisis; currency crisis; exchange rate regime;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate after Argentina," Working Papers 74, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Samir Jahjah & Peter Montiel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/60, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcos Chamon, 2004. "Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling?," IMF Working Papers 04/99, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Masson, Paul R, 1995. "Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 571-82, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Roberto Chang, 2006. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Roberto Chang, 2005. "Financial Crises and Political Crises," NBER Working Papers 11779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Masson, Paul R, 1999. "Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 70-84, February.
  10. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
    Other versions:
  13. Andres Velasco & Alejandro Neut, 2003. "Tough Policies, Incredible Policies?," NBER Working Papers 9932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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