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Financial Constraints and Exchange Rate Flexibility in Emerging Market Economies

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  • Michael B. Devereux

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, University of British Columbia, CEPR)

Abstract

Empirical evidence from the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 suggests that exchange rate depreciation may have had a contractionary effect on the traded good sector of the worst-hit economies. Many writers have suggested that this was caused by exchange rate sensitive credit constraints affecting the production sector. This paper documents some of this evidence, and uses it to develop a structural model that features an important role for credit constraints in the financing of traded goods production. We show that this model can explain why emerging market governments would be more concerned with variations in exchange rates than would be implied by standard ¡¥optimal currency area¡¦ criteria. Moreover, the model implies that monetary policy may be a very ineffective tool in emerging market economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 152001.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:152001

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  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  3. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 2001. "The Benefits of Dollarization When Stabilization Policy Lacks Credibility and Financial Markets Are Imperfect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 440-74, May.
  5. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin & Miguel A. Savastano, 2000. "Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America," NBER Working Papers 7617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. McKinnon, Ronald I. & Pill, Huw, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1267-1282, July.
  9. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71, pages 883-913, 07.
  11. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Departmental Working Papers 200006, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  13. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2002. "Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel," IMF Working Papers 02/141, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Magud, Nicolas E., 2010. "Currency mismatch, openness and exchange rate regime choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 68-89, March.
  3. Nicolas Magud, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Country Characteristics: an Empirical Investigation into the Role of Openness," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-15, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Oct 2004.
  4. Nicolas Magud, 2002. "Currency Mismatch, Openness and Exchange Rate Regime Choice," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Sep 2004.

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