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On the Relevance of Exports for Regional Output Growth in China

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Yanqun Zhang

Abstract

Despite high economic growth during the last decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies determine Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function approach, this paper examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components, the latter being stationary. The results indicate cointegration between the common components of GDP, the capital stock and exports. In equilibrium, exports increase GDP by more than their impact expected from the national accounts. While exports and capital are weakly exogenous, GDP responds to deviations from the long run. An adjustment pattern can be detected for almost all regions, except of some provinces in the Western part of the country.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1264.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1264

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Keywords: Chinese economy; panel co-integration; expert led growth;

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  1. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. Jun Zhang, 2008. "Estimation of China's provincial capital stock (1952-2004) with applications," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 177-196.
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Masao Ogaki & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regression," Working Papers 04-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  6. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  7. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
  8. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2011. "A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1149, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Bo Chen, 2011. "Export Variety, Revenue, and Productivity in China," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 341-355, 05.
  10. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  11. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Yanrui Wu, 2009. "China's Capital Stock Seris By Region and Sector," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 09-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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