Lorenzo Cappellari () (DISCE, Università Cattolica) Richard Dorsett () (Policy Studies Institute, London) Getinet Haile () (Policy Studies Institute, London)
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This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in the UK aged between 50 and the state pension age. We begin by examining the issue of duration dependence, using standard duration models. We then use a fourth order Markov model to estimate quarterly transitions while allowing for potential endogeneity of initial conditions. The results reject exogeneity of initial conditions and show the importance of both duration dependence and state dependence. This implies there is the potential for any individual to become trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as an individual begins a period of non-employment.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
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