Heterogeneous Firm-Level Responses to Trade Liberalization: A Test Using Stock Price Reactions
AbstractThis paper presents novel empirical evidence on key predictions of heterogeneous firm models by examining stock market reactions to the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1989 (CUSFTA). Using the uncertainty surrounding the agreement's ratification, I show that the pattern of abnormal returns of Canadian manufacturing firms was broadly consistent with the predictions of a class of models based on Melitz (2003). Increases in the likelihood of ratification led to stock market gains of exporting firms relative to non-exporters. Moreover, gains were higher in sectors with larger cuts in U.S. import tariffs. Decreases in the likelihood of ratification led to opposite stock market reactions. Results for the impact of Canadian tariff reductions are less conclusive but most specifications suggest that exporters also gained relative to non-exporters in response to such reductions. Translating stock market gains into implied profit changes, I find that CUSFTA increased expected per-period profits of exporters by around 6-7% relative to non-exporters.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8600.
Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Other versions of this item:
- Holger Breinlich, 2011. "Heterogeneous Firm-Level Responses to Trade Liberalisation: A Test Using Stock Price Reactions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1085, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
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- Amiti, Mary & Konings, Jozef, 2005.
"Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
- Amiti, M. & Konings, Joep, 2007. "Trade liberalization, intermediate inputs, and productivity: evidence from Indonesia," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/197555, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
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- Chaney, Thomas, 2008.
"Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade,"
Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole
http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
- Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
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