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Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the 1988 Canadian General Election

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  • James A. Brander

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of public opinion polls on the Toronto Stock Exchange during the campaign period of the 1988 Canadian general election. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the Toronto Stock Exchange and, secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement? The author finds that the Toronto Stock Exchange was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of Toronto Stock Exchange subindices, while not inconsistent with a Free Trade Agreement based interpretation, does not offer much additional supporting evidence.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 827-43

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:24:y:1991:i:4:p:827-43

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Cited by:
  1. Basyah, Mohammad & Hartigan, James C., 2007. "Analyst earnings forecast revisions and the persistence of antidumping relief," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-399.
  2. Tirtiroglu, Dogan & Bhabra, Harjeet S. & Lel, Ugur, 2004. "Political uncertainty and asset valuation: Evidence from business relocations in Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2237-2258, September.
  3. Holger Breinlich, 2006. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Restructuring through Mergers and Acquisitions," Economics Discussion Papers, University of Essex, Department of Economics 619, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  4. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
  5. Melitz, Marc J. & Trefler, Daniel, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Scholarly Articles 10914282, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Rehbein, Kathleen & Starks, Laura T., 1995. "Changes in U.S. trade policies: the wealth effects on Japanese steel firms," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-327, September.

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