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Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization

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Author Info
Limão, Nuno
Olarreaga, Marcelo

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Abstract

The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows down multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates this is the case even for unilateral preferences that developed countries provide to small and poor countries but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. To avoid this stumbling block effect we suggest replacing unilateral preferences by a fixed import subsidy. We argue that this scheme would reduce the drag of preferences on multilateral liberalization and generate a Pareto improvement. More importantly, we provide the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. By combining recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and over 5,000 products we calculate the welfare effects of the United States, European Union and Japan switching from unilateral preferences to Least Developed Countries to the import subsidy scheme. Even in a model with no dynamic gains to trade we find that the switch produces an annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries ($4,354 million) and for each group: the United States, European Union and Japan ($2,934 million), Least Developed Countries ($520 million) and the rest of the world ($900 million).

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5045.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5045

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Related research
Keywords: MFN tariff concessions; multilateral trade negotiations; preference erosion; preferential trade agreements;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  2. Panagariya, Arvind & Shah, Shekhar & Mishra, Deepak, 2001. "Demand elasticities in international trade: are they really low?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 313-342, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 2000. "The new regionalism: trade liberalization or insurance?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. McCulloch, Rachel & Pinera, Jose, 1977. "Trade as Aid: The Political Economy of Tariff Preferences for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 959-67, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Azam, Jean-Paul & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 2003. "Contracting for aid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 25-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Won Chang & L. Alan Winters, 2002. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 889-904, September. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karacaovali, Baybars & Limão, Nuno, 2005. "The Clash of Liberalizations: Preferential vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 4973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Limão, Nuno, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 4884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 1997. "Regionalism and Multilateral Tariff Cooperation," NBER Working Papers 5921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism And Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 227-250, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Brown, Drusilla, 1989. "A computational analysis of Japan's generalized system of preferences," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 103-128, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-073/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bchir, Mohamed Hedi & Karingi, Stephen N. & Mold, Andrew & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Jallab, Mustapha Sadni, 2006. "The Doha Development Round and Africa: Partial and General Equilibrium Analyses of Tariff Preference Erosion," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25240, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hoekman. Bernard & Prowse, Susan, 2005. "Economic policy responses to preference erosion : from trade as aid toaid for trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3721, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karacaovali, Baybars & Limão, Nuno, 2005. "The Clash of Liberalizations: Preferential vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 4973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Baybars Karacaovali & Nuno Limao, 2008. "The Clash of Liberalizations: Preferential versus Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-02, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Raja Chakir & Jacques Gallezot, 2007. "The Utilisation of EU and US Trade Preferences for Developing Countries in the Agri-Food Sector," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp193, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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