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Adaptive model-predictive climate policies in a multi-country setting

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  • BRECHET, Thierry

    ()
    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE and Louvain School of Management, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

  • CAMACHO, Carmen

    ()
    (CNRS and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France)

  • VELIOV, Vladimir M.

    ()
    (ORCOS, Institute of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Austria)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to extend the use of integrated assessment models by defining rational policies based on predictive control and adaptive behavior. The paper begins with an review of the main IAMs and their use. Then the concept of Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) is introduced within a general model involving heterogeneous economic agents operating in (and interfering with) a common environment. This concept captures the fact that agents do not have a perfect foresight for several ingredients of the model, including that of the environment. A version of the canonical IAM (DICE) is developed as a benchmark case. The concept of MPNE is then enhanced with adaptive learning about the environmental dynamics and the damages caused by global warming. The approach is illustrated by some numerical experiments in a two-region setting for several scenarios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2012049.

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Date of creation: 10 Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2012049

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Keywords: optimal control; global warming; predictive control; adaptive behavior; integrated assessment;

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  1. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
  2. Thierry Bréchet & François Gerard, 2007. "Climate Coalitions: A Theoretical and Computational Appraisal," Working Papers 2007.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Fleurbaey,Marc & Maniquet,François, 2011. "A Theory of Fairness and Social Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521887427, April.
  4. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
  5. Lawrance, Emily C, 1991. "Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 54-77, February.
  6. EYCKMANS, Johan & TULKENS, Henry, . "Simulating coalitionally stable burden sharing agreements for the climate change problem," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1677, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Zili Yang, 2008. "Strategic Bargaining and Cooperation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigations: An Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262240548, December.
  8. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar, 2005. "The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 277-292, August.
  9. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," CORE Discussion Papers 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 117-146, October.
  11. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
  12. Thierry Brechet & Yann Meniere & Pierre M. Picard, 2012. "The Clean Development Mechanism in a Global Carbon Market," CEEES Paper Series CE3S-06/12, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
  13. BRECHET, Thierry & CAMACHO, Carmen & VELIOV, Vladimir, 2010. "Model predictive control, the economy, and the issue of global warming," CORE Discussion Papers 2010016, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Duranton, Gilles & Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Mayneris, Florian, 2010. "The Economics of Clusters: Lessons from the French Experience," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199592203, September.
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