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Export Transitions

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  • Roberto Álvarez

Abstract

In this paper I use a broad multi-country dataset to analyze divergent experiences in export orientation over time. First, I use transition probability matrices for comparing how countries move across the world distribution for different time periods. I find that transitions toward high export ratios have been mainly experienced by Asian countries, but also some reformers like Mexico and Chile have been able to increase their exports significantly. Countries making transitions toward low export ratios are mainly from Africa, but these countries only constitute a half of economies with bad export performance. I focus then on which structural factors may be important for long-run transitions. The results suggest that more open economies and those with better institutions are more likely to move to high export ratios in the long-run. Finally, I explore within-country experiences for identifying episodes of export transitions. Using an event study methodology, I find a very weak association between export transitions and economic growth and investment rate. In contrast, my results suggest that transitions are potentially driven by improvements in financial development. Finally, favorable terms of trade, increments in productivity, and reductions in exchange rate distortions are not found to be a catalyst for export transitions. l II) could be helpful on this task.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 418.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:418

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  1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  2. James Proudman & Stephen Redding, 2000. "Evolving patterns of international trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 206, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?," NBER Working Papers 11669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2003. "Geography and Export Performance: External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity," NBER Working Papers 9637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Caroline Freund & Frank Warnock, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 133-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Maria Mancusi, 2001. "Technological specialization in industrial countries: Patterns and dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 137(4), pages 593-621, December.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Stephen Redding, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 210, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  12. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  13. Braun, Matias & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Trade liberalization, capital account liberalization and the real effects of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 730-761, September.
  14. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
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