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Determinants and projections of demand for higher education in Portugal

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  • Carlos Vieira

    ()
    (Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora)

  • Isabel Vieira

    ()
    (Departamento de Economia, CEFAGE-UE, Universidade de Évora)

Abstract

This paper formulates a model of demand for higher education in Portugal considering a wide range of demographic, economic, social and institutional explanatory variables. The estimation results suggest that the number of applicants reacts positively to demographic trends, graduation rates at secondary education, female participation, compulsory schooling and the recent Bologna process. Demand reacts negatively to the existence of tuition fees and to unemployment rates. Within an adverse demographic and economic context, forecasts of demand for the next two decades suggest the need to increase participation rates, to avoid funding problems in the higher education system and increase long-term economic development prospects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal) in its series CEFAGE-UE Working Papers with number 2011_15.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2011_15

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Web page: http://www.cefage.uevora.pt
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Related research

Keywords: Demand for higher education; determinants of university participation; applications forecasting.;

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  1. Wetzel, James & O'Toole, Dennis & Peterson, Steven, 1998. "An Analysis of Student Enrollment Demand," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 47-54, February.
  2. Christofides, Louis N. & Hoy, Michael & Yang, Ling, 2010. "Participation in Canadian Universities: The gender imbalance (1977-2005)," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 400-410, June.
  3. Christou, Costas & Haliassos, Michael, 2006. "How do students finance human capital accumulation?: The choice between borrowing and work," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 39-51, January.
  4. Lorenzo Cappellari & Claudio Lucifora, 2008. "The "Bologna Process" and College Enrolment Decisions," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro ieil0051, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  5. Blaug, Mark, 1976. "The Empirical Status of Human Capital Theory: A Slightly Jaundiced Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 827-55, September.
  6. Cardoso, Ana Rute & Portela, Miguel & Sá, Carla & Alexandre, Fernando, 2006. "Demand for Higher Education Programs: The Impact of the Bologna Process," IZA Discussion Papers 2532, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Louis N. Christofides & Michael Hoy & Ling Yang, 2008. "The Determinants of University Participation in Canada (1977-2003)," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 4-2008, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  8. Carla Sa & Raymond Florax & Piet Rietveld, 2004. "Determinants of the Regional Demand for Higher Education in The Netherlands: A Gravity Model Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 375-392.
  9. Duchesne, I. & Nonneman, W., 1998. "The Demand for Higher Education in Belgium," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 211-218, April.
  10. McPherson, Michael S & Schapiro, Morton Owen, 1991. "Does Student Aid Affect College Enrollment? New Evidence on a Persistent Controversy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 309-18, March.
  11. Boarini, Romina & Strauss, Hubert & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Oliveira Martins, Joaquim, 2008. "Investment in Tertiary Education : Main Determinants and Implications for Policy," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7987, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Galper, Harvey & Dunn, Robert M, Jr, 1969. "A Short-Run Demand Function for Higher Education in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 765-77, Sept./Oct.
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