Employment Growth, Inflation and Output Growth: Was Phillips Right? Evidence from a Dynamic Panel
AbstractIn this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips’ tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results strongly support the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output growth, giving support to Phillips’ Golden Triangle theory.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3502.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
employment growth; inflation; output growth; Golden Triangle theory;
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2011. "Employment Growth, Inflation and Output Growth: Was Phillips Right?: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1138, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
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